Richmond begins a daunting November stretch with a trip to Villanova, renewing an old CAA rivalry in the Patriot League.
Villanova Wildcats
Richmond and Villanova have taken opposite paths to this point in the season. The Spiders opened 5-0 against FCS opponents, including a 3-0 start in Patriot League play. Villanova, meanwhile, started 2-4 overall, 0-2 in the Patriot, and looked bad just about every week. Since then, the Wildcats have rattled off three straight conference wins against Fordham, Lehigh, and Lafayette, while the Spiders have dropped two of their last three. With some key personnel changes to navigate, we’ll need a quick reset to right the ship and slow down the red-hot Wildcats.
Surprisingly enough, Villanova is one of the most penalized teams in the country. Ranked 106th in the FCS, the Wildcats are being penalized nearly 70 yards per game. With the Spiders still in the bottom half of the FCS in penalty yardage, there’s a good chance we see plenty of yellow throughout the afternoon.
Patriot League Title + Playoff Outlook
November is about as straightforward as it gets. Lose a game and we’re done. Go 3-0 and we’ve still got a chance. Richmond MUST finish 9-3 to keep our playoff hopes alive, making every remaining game a must-win. But even at 9-3, there’s no guarantee we’re playing Thanksgiving weekend. We’ll need one of two things to happen along the way.
The first path is simple — if Holy Cross loses one of its remaining three games, Richmond wins the Patriot League auto-bid by winning out. We’d finish 7-2 in conference play, tied for first at worst, while holding the head-to-head tiebreakers over any other potential two-loss teams (Colgate, Lehigh, Georgetown). That would punch our ticket to the playoffs, likely as the Patriot League’s only representative.
The second path is less straightforward, but not all that far-fetched — we need the FCS at-large bubble to keep falling apart. Right now, the bubble remains weak, with Richmond still on the cusp of most top-25 polls. Beating W&M won’t do much for our resume, but wins over Villanova and Lehigh would likely push us back toward the top 20. If enough bubble teams continue to lose, a 9-3 Richmond squad could sneak into the field even without the auto-bid. If we can take care of Villanova, I’ll dig into exactly which teams we need to be rooting against.
Odds
The Spiders are currently 9.5-point underdogs, with an O/U of 47.5. Projected score is Villanova 29, Richmond 19.
Two-Deep
The two-deep listed in the game notes doesn’t match all the updates we’ve received throughout the week. Coach Huesman confirmed on his radio show that Devin Geronomi (SS) is back, while Jordan Allen is out. Ron Anderson will also return to the O-line, with Daniel Sellers a wait-and-see.
QB Ashten Snelsire was pictured at practice wearing a sling, while WR Andreas Hill was asked about Jack Callaghan at QB. That likely tells us all we need to know about the QB situation.
Spiders on Offense
Jack Callaghan looks set to make his first collegiate start, and he won’t have an easy assignment. The Wildcats might not have the most impressive defensive numbers, but they present a unique, physical challenge. They still run their traditional 3-3-5 stack and have allowed fewer than 19 PPG during their current three-game winning streak.
Running Game – Richmond’s ground game has steadily declined over the past few weeks. In four of our first five games, our RBs rushed for at least 100 yards, eclipsing 150 three times. Over the past three games, they haven’t reached 100 yards once, averaging just 67 YPG. I know we’ve dealt with injuries along the O-line, but our inability to establish ourselves up front is starting to affect the entire offense. Even in pass protection, our sacks allowed remain relatively low, but QB pressures have increased significantly in recent weeks. We can focus on the skill positions and QB play all we want, but if we learned anything from Holy Cross, it’s just how much an offensive line can dictate a game. If we’re going to finish 3-0 in November, our O-line needs to step things up in a big way.
Tight Ends – Callaghan needs to get on the same page with our receivers quickly, especially Bryce Allen. #8 was held without a reception for the first time all season against Holy Cross, and I have a hard time seeing this offense succeed without getting him involved. Another concerning trend is the declining involvement of our tight ends. They were averaging 7.5 targets/game earlier in the season but have seen just four targets in each of the past two games.
Clarke’s production has dropped off, while Derey has been virtually nonexistent after an excellent two-game stretch. #88 hauled in nine passes for 83 yards against Furman and Lafayette, yet hasn’t caught a pass in three straight games. It’s another example of our offense struggling to get the ball to its most impactful players. Tight ends can be a QB’s best friend, especially one making his first collegiate start, and I’m hoping Callaghan can lean on both Clarke and Derey in this one.
3rd Down – One of the weakest parts of Villanova’s defense is its inability to get off the field. The Wildcats are allowing opponents to convert nearly 47% of their 3rd-down attempts, ranking 9th in the Patriot League and 117th in the FCS. Richmond has had plenty of struggles of our own, converting just 24% of 3rd downs over the past two games, with only six total conversions. Sustaining drives has been a recurring problem for this offense, and that won’t change on Saturday if we can’t take advantage of Villanova’s struggles on 3rd down.
Spiders on Defense
Like their defense, the Wildcats’ offense has only gotten better as the season has progressed. After averaging just over 20 PPG in their first five games, Villanova has averaged more than 35 PPG over its last four, including 44 against Lafayette last weekend. Our secondary will face an established QB in Pat McQuaide, who leads the Patriot League in passing YPG and efficiency. The last time we faced a passing attack this dangerous was against Colgate, when we allowed 312 yards through the air but kept the Raiders out of the end zone and forced three interceptions. We’ll likely need our pass defense to come up with those same timely plays if we’re going to pull this one out.
Run Defense – Before Holy Cross, it had been eight years since the Spiders allowed 300+ rushing yards to an FCS opponent (Stony Brook, 2018). Slowing down Villanova’s passing game will get plenty of attention, and rightfully so, but we can’t overlook the bounce-back effort needed against the run. The Wildcats feature two running backs, Ja’briel Mace and Isaiah Ragland, both averaging over 50 rushing YPG and combining for 16 TDs on the ground. Villanova is by no means a one-dimensional offense, and how Justin Wood’s defense responds after getting pushed around by Holy Cross should tell us plenty early on.
Turnovers – Our defensive turnover streak came to an end in Worcester. Special teams recovered a fumble, but it was our first game since September 19 without a defensive takeaway. Getting back to forcing turnovers tomorrow won’t be easy. Villanova was careless early in the season, giving the ball away 10 times in its first six games. During its current three-game winning streak, however, the Wildcats haven’t turned it over once. Short fields have been our best offense lately, and stealing a possession against a team that’s suddenly protecting the ball well could go a long way toward pulling off an upset.
3rd Down – Some troubling trends on the defensive side as well. After an excellent start to the season, allowing opponents to convert just 22% of 3rd downs, the UR defense has fallen off a cliff recently. Over the past two games, we’re allowing opponents to convert 57% of their 3rd-down attempts. Not only is that allowing teams to sustain drives, but it’s also keeping our defense on the field far too long. In our first six FCS games, Richmond ran more plays than its opponent. The past two weeks, that’s flipped. You can see the wear on our defense, and with Villanova’s offense playing as well as it has, we can’t allow them to extend drives and wear us down.
Special Teams
Richmond punts the ball significantly better than Villanova, while they kick field goals much better than we do.
Ned Gray remains among the best in net punting average, continuing to hit big punts while limiting opponent returns. Meanwhile, Villanova has the second-lowest punting average in the Patriot League. With another windy day expected in Pennsylvania, Gray has another opportunity to give us an advantage in field position.
The Wildcats’ biggest advantage comes on field goals. Kicker Dominic LeBlanc is 11/13 on the season, compared with Kyle Bitsko at just 6/14. LeBlanc doesn’t have quite the same leg strength, but he’s consistently making the kicks he needs to. His only misses have come from 47 and 49 yards, while he’s a perfect 11/11 from 42 yards and in. That could be a huge factor in a close game.
Next Post
I’m spending the weekend in Philly, watching Men’s Basketball play Temple in the Palestra on Sunday, but I’m still aiming to have the recap out Monday morning.
2026 — Game 10: Villanova Recap – Monday, November 9th
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