Recruiting

My final transfer portal update of the offseason and it’s a great way to end it.

Tayshaun Burney | Wake Forest | Cornerback | 4 years of eligibility – We finally got our secondary addition that we desperately needed. After losing NFL players Malik Mustapha and Kobie Turner to Wake over the years, it’s about time they returned the favor. Another transfer with multiple years of eligibility, our staff continues to execute on a clear plan, while still finding guys that can contribute immediately.

Burney had plenty of FBS out of high school, and after redshirting in 2024 he’s ready to compete for a role on this year’s squad. A lot of what I read about Burney mentions his ability to play in the slot. We played exclusively nickel as our five DB package this spring, meaning Burney’s ability to play inside will give our defense another edge this fall.

Assuming this is our final addition, we added seven from the portal this offseason [3 OL, 2 WRs, 1 DB, 1 TE]. No surprises on how the distribution turned out, and it’s great to see us address positions that had real needs while still not relying on the portal for 10+ guys.

For those interested in our high school commits, June was a busy month. Six new Spiders verbally committed, bringing our 2026 total to eight.

1. Brayson Bristow – OL – Mechanicsville, VA
2. Sean Berntsen – OL – Greenwich, CT
3. Calum O’Shea – QB – Haymarket, VA
4. Carter Coleman – WR – Blythewood, SC
5. Matt Holland – DB/WR – Fredericksburg, VA
6. Quintin McCray – LB – Charlotte, NC
7. Marcus Yeager – DE – Mechanicsburg, PA
8. Ty Harris – DB – Oakton, VA

I listed the eight verbals above, but if you want to read more about them I encourage you to go to the SpiderNation Rivals page. The guys over there do a great job of posting commitments, targets, and highlights of any potential future Spiders.

https://richmond.forums.rivals.com/threads/2026-commits-list.15986/#post-451522

2025 Schedule

Seven road games to only five home games is never easy, however the schedule works out well in the back half. Three road games to start, including a huge PL test in week one and a solid non-conference game in week 2, will force the Spiders to fix their early season woes, but things soften after that. The bye week is well timed, we only have one flight game, and we still get to play William & Mary in the finale.

Opponents

The real detail will come in each game preview, but I’ve put a quick outline of each opponent since so many are unfamiliar.

@ Lehigh – Redemption game, or a brand-new season? I’m not sure how the locker room will treat it, but this is as impactful of a week 1 game as you can get. Our Patriot League odds will greatly swing based on the result (more below), meaning we’ll need to find the fast start to a season that has eluded us the past couple of years.

@ Wofford – Another redemption game but Wofford will be without dual-threat QB Amari Odom (219 yards, 2 TDs against UR last year). Odom transferred to Kennesaw State, meaning the 5-6 Terriers have some big shoes to fill. Richmond will be favored, but this isn’t an easy road game against a SoCon foe. A week 1 test against South Carolina State will tell us a lot about the 2025 Terriers ahead of our matchup.

@ North Carolina (FBS) – Richmond will play the Jordan Hudson Bill Belichick led Tar Heels for the first time since 1978. Money grab FBS games remain on our schedule moving forward, however I’m glad we’re playing different schools. UNC, NC State, and Louisville are nice changeups compared to UVA every other year.

VMI – Please stop losing home openers as heavy favorites. The early models have UR as 21-point favorites, so maybe waiting until week 4 for our first home game will change our luck.

Howard – A disappointing 2024 for the Bison, going 4-8 (1-4 MEAC) after consecutive 4-1 MEAC seasons in ’22/’23. Another non-conference game that won’t boost our metrics but could definitely trip us if we aren’t careful. The Bison have played solid defense over the past few years, so our September offense will need to be at a much higher level.

@ Bucknell – Historically Bucknell has not been good. Along with Georgetown, they’ve been towards the bottom of the Patriot League most seasons. Getting two of the lesser teams on the road is nice from a scheduling perspective, but things may change by the time October 4th rolls around. The Bison went 3-13 in the Patriot League from 2021-2023, but showed some life last season with a 4-2 record. This still needs to be a must win for the Spiders, but if they play well in September this may be more intriguing than we were expecting.

@ Colgate – The 5th road game in the first 7 weeks brings our first flight of 2025. The Raiders went 1-5 in the PL last season, and have not looked like the playoff contending team we once faced before COVID hit. A statistically mediocre 12-12 since 2021 means they likely won’t contend for the auto-bid this year, but still pose a threat given their spot on our schedule. If you’re keeping count, that’s three conference road games and zero home games through week 7. Very tricky timing for our longest regular season road trip.

Holy Cross – The biggest Patriot League home game of the year, and likely the most important. Holy Cross is expected to contend in 2025 and has the SoS to easily steal an at-large bid. Games against New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Yale, and Harvard could have them in the top 25 by the time they head down to Richmond, so this could impact both our auto-bid and at-large hopes. The Spiders will enjoy this home matchup – having traveled over 1,600 miles the first seven weeks, we will travel less than 500 miles for the final six.

BYE WEEK – No arguments with a late October bye, especially in a season with five Saturdays in November. We’ve been great exiting the bye in recent seasons, so this should set up well for another strong November push.

Fordham – A complete 180 for the Rams the past two years. Fordham went 9-3 and earned a rare Patriot League at-large bid in 2022, yet finished last year just 2-10. The SoS in November really lessens for the Spiders, so while we won’t be picking up quality wins we should be putting together solid games in preparation for the playoffs.

@ Georgetown – Our new natural Patriot League rival, Georgetown is the closest conference opponent (until W&M arrives). I’ll be blunt – Georgetown is bad at football. 7-17 against PL teams since 2021, the Hoyas are never contenders and won’t be again in 2025. They lack funding, they lack scholarships, they lack the overall backing needed for FCS programs. A basketball school through and through, the Hoyas should pose no threat this season.

Lafayette – The Leopards made noise in 2023, going 9-3 with a heartbreaking 2-point playoff loss to Delaware, however that’s their only winning Patriot League season since COVID. They’ve played with the likes of Holy Cross and Lehigh in recent years, so it will be interesting to see how good they look come November.

@ William & Mary – Winston October is back on the wrong sideline for the Capital Cup, and we’ll see if he can revive a Tribe offense that really dropped off after a fantastic 2022. Since they didn’t manage to score against us last November there’s really no way to go but up. This will be our strongest non-conference game, and could really make a statement to the committee in the final week if we’re on the playoff/top-8 seeding bubble.

Playoff chances

Patriot League outlook

We’ll basically know if we can win the Patriot League automatic bid after week 1. So much hinges on the Lehigh game – road game, top 25 opponent, against many expert’s Patriot League favorite. If we go 6-1 in the PL (with the correct tiebreaker), we’re likely getting the auto-bid, however that’s tough without a win over Lehigh.

With a win over Lehigh, Richmond has a 64% chance of finishing 6-1 or 7-0. We’d also hold a likely key tiebreaker over the Mountain Hawks, so our auto-bid odds would be even greater. With a loss, our odds of getting to 6-1 drop to just 19%, plus we’d need Lehigh to lose twice more (since they’d have the tiebreaker).

*all odds based on Massey Ratings projections*

I never want to put too much stock in one game, especially one in August, but a near 50% swing in winning the auto-bid is hard to overstate. The Holy Cross game in October will be critical, and we’ll have our chances to earn another at-large bid, but we’ll have a pretty good idea how feasible winning the Patriot League will be before Labor Day.

At-large hopes

There are always 8-4 teams that make the at-large field in a 12-game season, but Richmond likely won’t be one of them. With a projected SoS north of 80 once again (2024 SoS = 84), it feels like we’ll need 9 wins to play into Thanksgiving.

Here’s the projected ratings for our four non-conference opponents:

• Wofford – 62
• VMI – 93
• Howard – 98
• William & Mary – 30

Not great. Again, this was always going to happen in our first year outside of the CAA, and we shouldn’t run into this issue much longer with both W&M and Villanova joining the Patriot League, but for 2025 it’s a thorn in our side.

Without the auto-bid, 9-3 should easily see us make the playoffs, but getting a high seed/home game will be more difficult. Similar to 2024, I could see a 10-win Richmond team having a first round home game, but not a guaranteed first round bye. If a few things don’t go our way with the teams out west, we may need 11 wins to enjoy Thanksgiving at home. Not worth worrying over right now, but it does place a premium on us winning every single game that we are “supposed to win” this season.

Next Post

Fall camp is on the horizon. The 2025 Spiders will begin practices in Robins Stadium next month, so the annual position group previews will commence in a few weeks. I’ll start with the QB preview in late July and post the full schedule later on.

2025 Position Group Preview – Quarterbacks – Friday, July 25th