A lot changes with Richmond no longer in the CAA. How does moving to the Patriot League affect our scheduling, as well as our at-large/1st round bye prospects?

2024 FCS conference rankings

I’ll start with a summary of the CAA vs the SoCon vs the Patriot. I’m not going to discuss the SoCon very long but I’m sure I’ll get questions about it. Below are where the three conferences fell in the FCS conference power rankings the past three years.

Nothing surprising about this, as we knew the Patriot League was a few steps below the other two. They rarely have multiple teams in the playoffs and the bottom half of the league was pretty bad this year. What is interesting is the dip the SoCon had recently, getting only one team in the playoffs this past season and being outside of the top 5 conferences the past two seasons. Being a partial SoCon member (we would stay A-10 for most other sports) likely wasn’t an option we considered too much, and I’m not entirely sure the SoCon was looking for that kind of addition. With that, that’s the end of the SoCon discussion. I liked them as a destination but it never got off the ground.

What’s the benefit of leaving the CAA?

So, why leave a league that we’ve won two straight years, including an undefeated 2024? From a fan’s perspective this starts and ends with the CAA continually adding subpar teams. The additions of schools like Campbell, Hampton, NC A&T, Bryant, etc. aren’t sending the CAA in a good direction, and it’s starting to show.

Since 2017, the CAA has gone from the #2 ranked FCS conference down to #5. Between the rise of the Missouri Valley and Big Sky, along with east coast teams making the FBS jump, it’s been a tough decade for the CAA. Sliding to the #5 conference is no reason for us to leave, but the direct impact this is having on our schedule is where things really hurt.

The average power ranking of CAA teams in 2024 was 52. The average power ranking of Patriot League teams in 2024 was 79. Yet for Richmond’s 2024 schedule our average CAA opponent was 67, meaning our conference schedule was closer to that of Patriot League schedule, despite still being in the CAA. How? We skipped four of the top six teams for the second straight season. In a conference of 14+ teams you never know who you’ll play, and when you continually get bad draws it puts a very low ceiling on your potential. There shouldn’t be a world where a 10-2 (8-0 CAA) football team isn’t getting a 1st round bye, however it’s not completely unfair based on who we didn’t play. It’s not about playing the hardest schedule each year, it’s about ensuring your schedule maintains balance – something the CAA can no longer provide the Spiders.

Comparable schedules

With the Patriot League only having eight members, we’ll play each conference opponent once each season with nothing left to chance. Knowing exactly what you’re getting is helpful when building a schedule, as it removes the uncertainty of a bad draw. That’s great, but I just talked about how the PL was a few steps behind the CAA. While the stability will be there, the quality of teams (right now) won’t be. Getting back to a “good enough” strength of schedule [SoS] needs to be our top priority, but what exactly does that look like? Before I get into who we need to play, let’s look at what our target SoS is. Below are other 2024 playoff qualifiers and where they landed in the bracket.

Clearly the 84th toughest schedule didn’t cut it for the Spiders in 2024. We were probably fortunate to get the #9 seed, as we were far behind comparable teams when it came to schedule. Two things stand out here:

• Getting into the mid-60s is plenty fine for keeping a playoff berth. Seeing SEMO not even on the bubble at 9-3, with the 67th best schedule, shows that joining the Patriot League won’t hinder our ability for an at-large with a solid record. Put a decent non-conference schedule together, go either 8-3 or 9-3, and you’re back in the playoffs.
• Anywhere in the mid-50s would put us in a position for a bye. The CAA got killed by not having the #9, #10, and #11 teams play each other, so the committee took the easy route and gave no one a bye. Any normal season, either URI or Villanova is at home for Thanksgiving weekend. Mercer was comfortably a top 8 seed with the 49th best schedule, so this is a great target for UR moving forward.

Future scheduling

Now that we’ve established mid-60s works for an at-large, and low to mid-50s is a fair target for getting a bye, how do we arrive there? Until the Patriot League adds another member, we’ll play seven conference games and four non-conference. I know 2025 is a 12-game season but usually we’re playing 11, so I’m going to focus on that. With one non-conference game remaining an FBS opponent, here’s what we need to see in the other three spots:

1. William & Mary – This one is easy. It keeps a great rivalry alive, it keeps strong CAA team on our schedule, and it’s fun to end the season with a non-conference foe. This game is a must keep, as even in a down year the Tribe was still ranked in the 30s.
2. Villanova – Ideally Villanova joins us in the near future, and we “lose” a non-conference game by picking up an 8th Patriot League game against a former national champion and CAA rival. I remain optimistic this will happen, but even if they drag their feet we should get them on the schedule. If not, potentially another A-10 foe in Rhode Island, or a similar style school like Elon or Furman would be nice. Basically any traditional CAA/SoCon power would work.
3. Ivy League – The Ivy League will join the playoffs starting in 2025, which opens up more scheduling possibilities. They will now want a quality non-conference schedule themselves, so the pool of solid teams willing to play us increases.

Three schools in the top 35 show that the Ivy could greatly boost our schedule. As our football focus shifts more towards the northeast, expect to see a matchup against an Ivy League team more often.

Sample schedule

If Richmond put together the above schedule, our average opponent would be power ranked #64 and our strength of schedule would be in the mid-50s (it’s hard to predict SoS since it depends on what everyone else does, but 56 is where this would’ve fallen in 2024). A few assumptions in this:

• Zero improvement from other Patriot League members – the fact we can reach the mid-50s without any improvement from the bottom of the league is fantastic news. I don’t expect any crazy jumps, but Fordham & Colgate are traditionally better than 100+. If the group in red get into the 80s or 90s, that’s a big plus and would move us closer to the low-50s.
• We’ll have seasons with multiple FCS non-conference road games – not every season, but if we’ve got to travel to Furman and W&M the same season, so be it. Villanova joining the PL would help balance this out, but we can’t shy away from taking high quality games on the road.

What this all means

If we do this correctly, the same goals remain attainable in the Patriot League and allow us even more power when setting who we play, and where/when we play them. We undoubtedly have new challenges in the Patriot League, yet just as much opportunity.

With good scheduling, the Spiders will continue to find themselves in the at-large picture most years and should remain a constant playoff team. Getting a SoS in the mid-60s isn’t too difficult and will ensure we’re playing meaningful November/December football.

With great scheduling, we can still get a top-8 seed with a 10-1 or 9-1 FCS record. Getting to dictate high quality matchups in non-conference ensures we avoid scenarios like 2023 and 2024, all while having an even better chance to win our conference’s automatic bid.

What it really means is that the ball is in our AD’s court. The entire administration reaffirmed the commitment to UR football in our new league, and in my opinion there’s no better way to back that up than by revamping our scheduling approach.

2025 gets a pass because it was way too late to get out of any games, and maybe a revamp in 2026 is asking too much, however it’s completely fair to expect this in the near future. Props to them for taking a critical first step by keeping W&M on the schedule, but it’s going to take more than one non-conference game to keep the Spiders at the forefront of the FCS playoff picture. I’m hopeful our approach shifts quickly and drastically.

Next Post

The Spiders start spring ball on Sunday, February 23rd. Mostly afternoon practices, so I should be able to provide three updates throughout the spring period. First update will come out in early March.

Also, let me know who you’d like to see UR schedule in the future. I think there are some really cool SoCon/Ivy games out there, as well as interesting Ohio-Valley matchups.