Spiders do not get the auto-bid due to both Monmouth and Delaware losing. Final Richmond at-large resume:

• 8-3 (7-1 in the CAA, conference Co-Champions)
• 2 bad losses
• 1 ranked win (Rhody was ranked in the poll the week we played them, which will be considered by the committee)
• Strength of schedule in the low 80s (not great)

Bubble results

Positive Results

• Western Carolina loses to VMI – Western Carolina now 7-4, they were ahead of UR and are now OUT. Huge win for VMI as 17 point underdogs.
• Austin Peay over Central Arkansas – Central Arkansas does not steal the auto-bid, they are OUT
• UT Martin loses to Samford – UT Martin falls to 8-3, doesn’t have any great wins. With a similar “not-great” resume to UR, the CAA title could give us the edge here.
• NDSU over UNI – Northern Iowa (toughest schedule in the FCS) now 6-5 and OUT
• Alabama over Chattanooga – Chatty now 7-4, we are definitely ahead of a 7-4 SoCon team

Negative Results

• North Dakota beats Illinois State – UND is IN at 7-4 due to solid wins
• UC Davis over Sacramento State – I think this is bad, but it could be good. Both are now 7-4. Sac St has an FBS win, if they both get in then this was a nightmare. If somehow both get left out then this flips to a positive, yet unlikely.

Contenders

I think 18 teams are effectively guaranteed a spot, between auto-bids and strong resumes.

South Dakota State, South Dakota, Montana, Albany, Villanova, Montana State, Idaho, Austin Peay, Furman, Gardner Webb, Drake, Duquesne, Lafayette, Nicholls, Delaware, Mercer, North Dakota, North Dakota State

That leaves six spots for the following teams:

• Richmond (8-3)
• Sacramento State (7-4)
• UC Davis (7-4)
• North Carolina Central (9-2) only 8 D-I wins
• UT Martin (8-3)
• Southern Illinois (7-4)
• Youngstown State (7-4)
• Incarnate Word (8-2) only 7 D-I wins
• Chattanooga (7-4)
• Holy Cross (7-4) w/ 2 FBS losses

Bracketology

Brian McLaughlin – Has the Spiders IN. Richmond is one of his last three in the field, citing the lack of Delaware, Villanova, or Albany on our CAA schedule.

College Sports Madness – Has the Spiders IN.

Sam Herder – Has the Spiders IN. He doesn’t even have us in his last four teams in, despite having us out last week.

Craig Haley – Has the Spiders IN. He had UR in last week as well.

SI.com – Has the Spiders IN.

My thoughts

A SUPER generous bubble day for Richmond. The few games we needed to go our way all did, plus the bonus of Western Carolina losing. Feels crazy to say this after some less than ideal projections earlier in the week, however I don’t see how we get left out. You look at those nine teams I listed above – with six spots left I’m not sure what the arguments against UR would be. I understand the bad losses but that’s too many teams at 7-4 or with less D-1 wins to jump us. The FCS writers online are now agreeing with us and at this point not getting in would be a clear snub.

Also keep in mind that both Albany and Villanova getting a seed could be huge. Much easier to take a fourth team from a conference that has two seeds, so that’s another thing we now have going for us.

Potential draw

This is REALLY getting ahead of things, but let’s do it. This is assuming we get an East Coast draw, as there are enough teams to not ship us out west.

Good draw

• Duquesne – never argue with playing the NEC champ.
• Lafayette – never argue with playing the Patriot champ.
• Gardner Webb – a solid team but run heavy. I’ll take a run heavy team from a lesser conference. I think Duquesne and Lafayette are unrealistic for a bubble team to draw, so getting GW would be my ideal pick.
• NC Central – I have a feeling this is our draw. Guaranteed home game (they won’t bid) however it’s a tricky matchup. Dual threat QB and they can score.

Bad draw

No bad draws when you’re on the bubble but being the odd man out and having to travel would be a bad break given the number of nearby teams we could potentially host. Austin Peay and Mercer come to mind (Delaware too??) however all of those seem very unlikely. I think if we make the field then we’ll get a decent matchup thanks to geography.

Next Post

No matter what happens the W&M recap is coming out Monday morning. Let’s hope it’s not the last…