Rhode Island

Our first game against a ranked opponent this season comes against the Rhode Island Rams, who find themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt. In years past it would be Rhode Island looking to play spoiler against the Spiders however it seems that’s our job this season. The Rams started well, playing FBS Georgia State to a one score game and handling Stony Brook & Maine. A weather-soaked Villanova game is a hard loss to grade however their recent outings against Brown and Bryant have shown weaknesses.

Betting

Looks like Rhody will be a slight home favorite with the line right around Richmond +4. Total is right at 51 with a projected score of roughly 28-24. I’m someone who was higher than most on the Rams in the preseason and while that started well they haven’t played great in recent weeks. Spread feels fair but the secondary issues (and injuries) lead me to lean towards the over.

Spiders on Offense

A very statistically average Rhode Island defense. Middle of the road in the CAA in PPG allowed, rushing defense, 1st downs allowed, 3rd down defense, sacks forced, etc. They’ve won most of their games via the offense early on however one area they excel at is pass defense, as they allow the 2nd fewest yards per game and lowest yards-per-attempt in the CAA. We all enjoyed what we saw from our group last weekend however we’ve got a significantly upgraded opponent in this weekend’s showdown.

What I’m watching for

Reasonable expectations – I’m sure we’re all thinking about how cool it would be if Coleman throws for 350+ and 6 TDs every week, however I’m here to rein things back in. Maine was not a good football team. They weren’t awful, but they weren’t good. Their pass defense was bad, their pressure was bad, it was quite frankly a dream matchup for a pass-heavy QB in his first career start. I’m taking absolutely nothing away from what Coleman did but we can’t forget that Rhody, Elon, and W&M are all significantly more difficult opponents and more like the typical competition we’ll face going forward. Am I saying we should play safe and only let him throw it on 3rd down? I think I made my answer pretty clear on that in the Maine recap. I’m just saying that every game doesn’t need to have seven or more 20+ yard plays with 5+ TDs for Cam to be playing well. The explosive plays will happen but likely in a much more moderate fashion.

How do we manage the QBs? – Wickersham keeps dressing for the games, so I can’t tell that if that means he’s close to returning, or he’s just not able to go but if we really needed a QB he could give us a few plays. He looks fine throwing on the sidelines so I’m sure he’s just waiting to get cleared. If he’s back this week that’s no reason to not start Coleman, but there’s still plenty of value to a less than 100% Wickersham. Do you try and use him on 3rd downs? Goal-line packages? We tried that with Hardy once against Maine and while it didn’t work I think there’s value to working Kyle back if we can. Anything that allows us more opportunities in the run game should be explored so ideally that’s a great way to slowly return Wickersham to game form.

Running game – Now is the time to get creative with what we’re doing. You’ve got a passing attack that can march the ball down the field, you’re confident in your QB to let him throw it five consecutive plays, so make the big adjustment that’s needed. I can’t tell you what that is but whatever small tweaks we’ve made so far haven’t produced much. Are we a pistol team? Less A-gap running and more off-tackle runs? Pulling a guard more often rather than just zone schemes? I still feel like running wider suits Savon’s game and while we shouldn’t go wide 80% of the time right now there’s no consistent room inside. After the complete reversal in our passing attack I’m increasingly optimistic we’ll see some strides on the ground. Totally fine if we shift to a more pass-focused offense but we need to get a little more on the ground if we plan on beating top half CAA teams.

3rd down distance – The biggest factor in our 3rd down struggles has really been on 1st & 2nd down. Early on we had plenty of insignificant runs or screens that got us behind the sticks, ultimately leading to a poor 3rd down conversion rate. I can track the Spiders’ average yards to go on 3rd down but can’t manually do that for every team, so I don’t know where we stack up in the CAA. Here’s our numbers from three relevant games:

• Morgan State – 7.75 yards to gain
• Hampton – 8.16 yards to gain
• Maine – 5.01 yards to gain

Some of this is doing a better job of gaining yards on 1st/2nd down, but a big part is not losing yards. Sacks/penalties were higher than they should’ve been early on and it killed us by the time 3rd down rolled around. Maine had zero sacks and we had zero offensive penalties last weekend. That, plus better execution in the air, equals a much more manageable 3rd down average. The Rams did give up 272 yards passing to Brown last week, so expect the Spiders to use the passing game early on to help continue the trend towards more 3rd down success.

Spiders on Defense

If you thought Maine could throw the football wait until you see Rhode Island. Returning quarterback Kasim Hill for a seventh (yes, seventh) collegiate season has paid off for the Rams so far, boasting the #2 passing attack in the CAA along with 15 passing TDs (1st in the CAA). With two All-CAA hopefuls on the O-line this will be one of the strongest tests the Spiders defense gets and we’ll need a much better showing than what we’ve seen the past two weeks.

What I’m watching for

How do we approach a pass heavy team? – Last year’s matchup against Delaware comes to mind in terms of a similar style opponent, however those games won’t look similar. Angelo Rankin Jr. is still not listed on the two-deep and we’ve haven’t seen the nickel package all season. That was our go-to group against Delaware but it’s likely to be the 4-2-5 this weekend. With all three safeties (plus Jabril Hayes) active I could see us playing that unit upward of 50% of the time.

The other area is pressure, as Rhode Island has only allowed nine sacks through six game. That’s good for 5th in the CAA but when you factor in how often they throw it compared to someone like William & Mary, they’re actually 2nd in sacks allowed per pass attempt. Feels like the Spiders have brought a few more blitzes this year and the idea of playing Hoilette at edge looks better and better each week. Very interested to see how Justin Wood balances coverage versus pressure against an experienced Rhode Island offense, and how that pressure looks coming from the 4-2-5 package.

Weather – Another game up north, another rainy day. Looking like it won’t be nearly as bad as Stony Brook but I’ve got the rain gear packed. Enough rain could play a big factor if it limits Rhody’s downfield passing attack, as I’ll put our front up against most teams if the rain forces this to be more run heavy. After the past few weeks I’ll take anything that limits the opposition’s passing attack so this could end up in our favor.

Red zone – Rhode Island comes in with the 3rd highest TD % on redzone attempts in the CAA at 75%, while Richmond has the 3rd lowest TD rate defensively (52%). Take away the FBS games for each team and that number moves to 77% for the URI offense, while Richmond’s drops to 42%. Not a coincidence that Vegas has this game coming down to the difference between a FG and a TD, so each red zone trip carries extra weight in this matchup. If this match-up does end in a one score game it’s likely we’ll be coming back to this statistic to see who had the upper hand.

Special Teams

Some shaky special teams happening in Rhode Island, with the Rams 14th in CAA in punting average, all while allowing two blocked kicks and a blocked punt through six games. They have returned one kickoff for a TD but otherwise it’s definitely an area that Richmond can win. Throw in the potential for a little weather and it could be our first chance of the season for special teams to make a game-winning play.

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Rhode Island recap (Monday morning)