There’s no road trip a Richmond fan fears more than that to Long Island, as this group will look to pick up our first win at Kenneth P. LaVelle Stadium in a decade. Nothing has gone right for the Seawolves early on so if you remove the history of this game it should be a great CAA opener for UR.

Stony Brook

Our “northern rivals” (since the CAA insists we play them every year, yet never play Towson) enter with two conference losses already, dropping games against Delaware and Rhode Island. They’ve also lost their FBS game and none of the three games have been close. Three-score losses in all three games and feels like a lot of the same compared to 2022. I can confidently say this won’t be another 51-7 UR victory but if you’re looking for a road win to start the conference slate this is a matchup we’ll take every time.

I think we all know the history here but I’ll recap in case you enjoy horror stories. Week 1 of 2016, Richmond (coming off a FCS semifinal appearance in ’15) goes to UVA and beats the Cavaliers by 17 points. Two weeks later is the CAA opener @ Stony Brook. The result? 28-point loss. 2018 – Richmond opens CAA play @ Stony Brook again, this time losing by 26 points. 2021 – not a CAA opener but another 13-point loss to the Seawolves on the road. 1-3 in road games against Stony Brook since they joined in 2013, with three ugly losses. That pretty much sums up our trips to Long Island so I know plenty of Spiders fans groaned when they saw this team on the schedule again in 2023.

Betting

Seeing the total right around 46, with the Spiders laying 14+ points. Nothing of what we’ve seen so far leads me to think we’re a two TD favorite in any road game but Stony Brook really has looked bad early on. Projected score based on those numbers is 30-16 Richmond, but that’s before you look at the weather.

Hard to see either team getting to 30 (or even the mid-20s) based on that so feels like this game follows the conventional thinking of bad weather = Under.

Spiders on Offense

Some tough looking statistics three weeks in for the Stony Brook defense, however some of these numbers got inflated after their FBS matchup with Arkansas State. Allowing over 200 YPG on the ground but in the two CAA games that number is only 130 – take into account that UD & URI ran it 69 times combined and they’re only allowing 3.7 YPC against two higher level CAA teams.

The passing numbers however are not a fluke – over 700 yards allowed in two CAA games, three TDs, and at a clip of nearly 16 yards per attempt. They’re allowing an average of nearly 450 YPG of total offense, so while we should be winning a majority of our CAA matchups with great defense this is a game we could see a lot of the bright spots from Delaware State carry over.

What I’m watching for

Were early protection struggles a slow start or a sign of what’s coming? – This has been on a lot of people’s minds after the first two weeks and we’ll finally get an opponent where this can start to be answered. Sure, Stony Brook isn’t great, but a CAA team that has 10 sacks and 18 TFLs through three weeks is more than good enough to give us an idea on the real status of this O-line. Salyers being out hasn’t helped, having to move Coll around hasn’t helped, but I’m hoping a little sense of stability and a fine showing last game are enough to get things turned back in the right direction.

Savon Smith – We need the real Savon Smith back, and badly. Kind of a nightmare start to his senior season with two muffed punts and less than 4 YPC so far but sometimes all it takes is one great game to get things back on track. I’ve got a somewhat similar feeling with the O-line, as these guys were too good last season to not return to the standard we’ve seen them set. It’s a tough ask to go through the CAA with your top-2 backs averaging a combined 53 YPG (Howard currently at 27 YPG, Smith at 26 YPG) so despite Stony Brook’s awful pass defense we’ve got to find ways to get #2 in space and making plays for this offense.

Weather – I’ve changed this about four times so far because the forecast gets worse each day. 100% chance of rain all day, nearly 2 inches in total, with steady 25 mph winds and gusts up to 40 mph. UR was 0-2 last season in rain games (Elon and Sacramento State) but this will far exceed those. You want to attack Stony Brook’s secondary but both teams may not be able to throw it more than 10 times if the forecast holds true. A northeast wind (per weather.com) would be parallel to the playing field, meaning we’ll have it at our backs for two quarters. That might be our window to work the passing game more, however it’s looking like air yards and the passing chart won’t be relevant to this week’s recap.

Wickersham running – I’ve enjoyed the sparce number of designed runs we’ve had for #16 the past two weeks but that all goes out the window this weekend. In these conditions I can’t see him running it less than 15 times. Haven’t shown read option early on, with most QB runs being designed draws or powers, so I’m curious if the weather will force us to open up our run game and put the game more in Wickersham’s hands.

Spiders on Defense

The first opportunity for this Spiders defense to establish themselves in CAA play and a great chance to be dominant in the opener. The Seawolves average 11 PPG (yes, eleven), under 300 yards of offense, have two times more INTs than TD passes, and only convert 27% of their 3rd downs. They haven’t scored more than 14 points in a game, as their grad-transfer QB from Buffalo hasn’t really panned out in the early goings. A great game on this side of the ball would almost assuredly lead to UR snapping our streak of Long Island woes.

What I’m watching for

Injuries – We’re now up to two starters that may not be out there on Saturday. Per this week’s game notes, Jeremiah Grant is OUT and Bryson Parker will PLAY. Now, we all know game notes are an easy way to try and throw teams off, so take these for what they’re worth. Reading between the lines from a few different spots I actually would’ve thought the opposite, as Grant’s injury didn’t seem too bad and it felt like we took advantage of a good opportunity to rest his shoulder last weekend. Bryson Parker, who went down during the Delaware State game, likely won’t be out for long but I got the feeling we wouldn’t see him this weekend. Pure speculation and guessing, so we won’t know for sure until about 2:30 on Saturday. Fortunate to have two easy plug & plays at these spots, with Zander Barnett established at DE and Mikey Jarmolowich ready to step in at safety. Never want to be down two starters but those spots are well covered if we in fact are.

Wayne Galloway gets the start – The balanced snap counts between Galloway and Hoilette the past few weeks seemed to indicate the staff is having a hard time keeping Galloway off the field, and now they’ve officially announced him as a starter for week 4. This isn’t his first year getting some starts, as he picked up two in 2022, so I’d expect business as usual from Galloway this Saturday.

I take this move to be more about Galloway’s strong play rather than poor play by Donovan Hoilette. Hard to believe we won’t see Hoilette in some capacity this weekend – whether it’s giving another linebacker a few plays off or being a pass rusher on 3rd down it’s unlikely we won’t see #34 impact the game. If Jeremiah Grant is a no-go, or on a limited snap count, Hoilette could be a good resource to turn to for an edge rush on passing downs.

4-2-5 – None of this may matter with the weather, but worth discussing. This package has been centered around Bryson Parker playing the dime position, and Huesman has mentioned multiple times how that’s the most important spot for them to develop when playing that scheme. We haven’t seen anyone else in that role besides Parker so what our 3rd down defense looks like is pure speculation. Neither Banks nor Jarmo fit that dime role so I doubt they shift. Feels like this is either Jabril Hayes playing that spot or maybe a resurgence of the nickel package? No one loves Angelo Rankin Jr. playing the slot corner spot more than me so I’ll never argue against seeing the nickel used again. If Parker isn’t able to go, how we approach the first few 3rd & longs will be interesting.

Special Teams

The importance of special teams gets amplified when wind & rain are in the picture. Long snapping, field punts, and field goal kicking (or lack thereof) become exponentially important, something that neither team is likely too happy about. Both punt units are strong but neither team has excelled in punt returning or field goal kicking.

• Richmond – 2/5 (40%) on field goals
• Stony Brook – 2/6 (33%) on field goals

Poor kicking and poor kicking conditions potentially lead to more 4th down attempts, as we might not see any field goals beyond 35 yards. Throw in both teams being below 30% converting 3rd downs for the year and we might see a few pivotal 4th downs tomorrow. I know Huesman is beyond ultra-conservative on 4th downs, and Stony Brook tends to be as well (based on ’21 and ’22 numbers), however I’d expect one pivotal 4th down to shift the game, especially in a low scoring affair.

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Stony Brook recap (Monday morning)