Richmond and William & Mary for the 136th time but for the first time as non-conference foes, a great trivia question one day. Neither team is in playoff contention (don’t let W&M fans convince you they can make it at 8-4) but the intensity will be as high as ever.

William & Mary Tribe

The once run-happy Tribe are now are pretty good passing team. Having waited behind Darius Wilson, R-Jr. quarterback Tyler Hughes has been steady throughout 2025. The defense has been a step behind but overall this is still a strong group. Entering with a Massey power ranking of 39, William & Mary will join Lehigh and Lafayette as our toughest three FCS opponents. The Spiders have been able to win one-possession games against lesser teams but not the better ones. Getting a rivalry win as underdogs to close out the year would show a big step in our progression, and 7-5 sure feels a lot better than 6-6.

Two things stand out when reviewing William & Mary. First, they’re a slower starting team. -30 point differential in the 1st quarter, +83 after that. I’m going to keep harping on not missing chances early in games because it’s something that has hurt us more than once. A rivalry game on the road is not the time to let a slow starting team get off to a hot start – the Spiders need to capitalize on whatever early opportunities we have and play with a lead.

Second, William & Mary does not beat themselves. They have the 2nd fewest penalty yards/game (34.1) in the FCS. They also never lose the turnover battle. In 11 games they’ve won it five times and pushed six, thanks to only five giveaways (3 INTs, 2 fumbles). W&M is clearly a sound football team and our mental & physical discipline has to match that.

Also, if you’ll be in Williamsburg the away section is no longer 117 & 118. We’re now in sections 113 & 114. Same side of the field (still behind our bench) just at the other end.

Odds

Line sits at Richmond +7.5 with an O/U of 50.5. Projected score is William & Mary 29, Richmond 21.

Spiders on Offense

Running game – William & Mary is the third worst run defense in the CAA, allowing just shy of 190 YPG. They gave up 150+ yards in eight of 11 matchups, a number Richmond only ran for three times. Good teams have been able to lean on the Tribe D-line so we need to find a steady ground game tomorrow. Lots of focus has been on evolving the passing game however this is a team that Aziz Foster-Powell could lead the charge against. A lot of touches for #3 could lead to his second 100-yard game this year.

Maintaining our balance is still important. New Hampshire and Villanova are two playoff teams that beat W&M and they give a good blueprint. Both ran for 232 yards at roughly 6 YPC. The ground game was a key factor but they used that to target W&M deep.

60% of UNH/Villanova passes were thrown 10+ yards downfield against the Tribe defense, leading to over 350 yards. A strong majority of their passing production relied on attacking W&M deep, the perfect compliment to a good run game. This feels like a great time for Foster-Powell to shine but we have to keep the trio of Griffin/Dawson/Hill involved. Thanks to our 4th quarter surge against Lafayette, UR finished with three 50+ yard receivers for the third time this season. Using all three wideouts to stretch the field would be a promising sign after some strides made last weekend.

3rd down – Richmond is coming off a forgetful game, going just 6/23 on 3rd downs. We’ve really struggled lately, converting just 29% in our last five games. Thankfully the Tribe defense struggles as well, allowing opposing offenses to convert 43% of attempts (83rd in FCS). This feels like an area the Spiders need to win – not only should our ground game help to lessen our 3rd down distance but the W&M offense is going to demand a lot from our defense, so giving them extended rest would be nice. Richmond needs to play complimentary football and it starts by having our offense sustain drives.

Spiders on Defense

Winston October – Surely you haven’t forgotten the man calling plays on the other sideline. I don’t need to rehash what did or didn’t go down (the lack of discussion this week on both sides speaks volumes) – the Tribe offense and their play caller will be especially fired up for this one. If we know one thing about Coach October it’s that he won’t shy away from using trick plays to ignite his offense. We saw this plenty the past two seasons, with the last time we were in Williamsburg a great example. UR threw two TD passes, neither by quarterbacks (WR Jasiah Williams on a reverse and RB Savon Smith on a jump pass). I’m sure he saw our communication breakdowns last weekend so I’m expecting W&M to have a gadget play ready to try and exploit that.

Tyler Hughes – A breakout season for Hughes. He has only two interceptions on 284 passes, the second best ratio of any FCS QB with 200+ attempts. Hughes does this by spreading the ball around equally. Despite averaging 222 YPG through the air, W&M has just one receiver averaging > 30 yards. Deven Thompson leads the way with 54 YPG, with nine other Tribe players having 100+ receiving yards. Within that balance, William & Mary capitalizes on their depth at tight end. TEs have 524 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, led by 2nd leading receiver Jackson Blee. The 6’6″, 250 lb. weapon will not be easy to cover and I’m interested to see how we approach some of these difficult matchups.

The other thing that makes Hughes difficult to defend is his mobility. He’s run for over 600 yards and nine TDs, with nearly 2/3 of those from scrambles. I touched on this in the Howard preview back in September but 2024 wasn’t kind to UR against run-heavy QBs, and Hughes will be tougher. Our DEs will have an especially difficult task in trying to generate pressure while also keeping contain. Both Camden Byrd and Donovan Hoilette are tied for 9th in the FCS in total pressures. With Hoilette at 8.5 sacks and 12.5 TFLs (both 3rd in Patriot), one more solid outing could land him a 1st team All-Patriot honor. We’ll need great efforts up front to maintain rush lanes and contain the abilities of #6.

Redzone – Their dynamic QB shows up in the redzone as well, leading W&M to have one of the most efficient offenses inside the 20 yard line. They’ve scored on 38 of 42 trips (11th in FCS), with TDs coming 71% of the time (16th in FCS). For the Spiders, Peyton Seelmann’s interception last weekend ended a streak of opponents scoring on 19 consecutive redzone trips. Going back to Bucknell, Richmond allowed 19 scores on 19 possessions, with 14 of those being TDs. So much room to improve and I think we saw how drastically a turnover can change the game. Forcing a takeaway or finding a few stops would go a long way towards slowing down the Tribe.

Special Teams

Our punt team’s hardest test of the season is tomorrow’s finale, as W&M has a superb punt blocking unit. They’ve blocked six punts (most in FCS), including three for safeties against Albany. Ned Gray & Co. will need a flawless effort to keep them from shifting momentum on special teams.

Roughly half of their kickoffs have gone for touchbacks but when they don’t the Tribe give up big yardage. They rank 114th in the FCS, allowing nearly 25 yards/return. I keep waiting to see more fireworks from Isaiah Dawson and his first Capital Cup would be a perfect spot.

Next Post

Game 12 – 2025: William & Mary recap – Monday, November 24th