A very different feel than we usually have in UR/VMI matchups. The Keydets look more competitive while the Spiders are yet to capture the mojo of recent seasons. Despite a 12-game winning streak against VMI we could be in for another intriguing home opener.

VMI Keydets

Danny Rocco returns to Robins Stadium with yet another team, a decade after leading the 2015 Spiders to a semifinal appearance. It’s been tough sledding down in Lexington but he may have found something in year 3. Coming off a 1-11 campaign VMI looks renewed on offense while still trying to put the defense together. This is a young team so the Spiders won’t be disadvantaged in experience. We’ve made our share of young mistakes so hopefully it’s time our opponent does as well.

I think we’re about to learn a lot about ourselves. We have some great passing attacks coming up on the schedule and our October looks tougher every week. With two home games before Patriot League play resumes this team has to find some traction while also putting our home opener demons behind us. Flipping the switch tomorrow would go a long way for our season.

Odds

Line is up to Richmond -16.5 as of this morning with a total of 42.5. Projected score is 30-13 Spiders.

Spiders on Offense

The Keydets defense allowed 33 PPG in 2024, struggling to stop both the run (178 YPG, 4.3 YPC) and the pass (230 YPG, 8.1 YPA). It’s difficult to get a read on them in 2025, as two of their games were against triple-option Navy and D-II Ferrum. A 35-28 loss to fellow Patriot League member Bucknell last weekend showed their defense still has a ways to go. If there were ever a game for the UR offense to get things rolling, this is it.

Wickersham is set to start and Jaiden Fair remains out (returning maybe late October?) so I’m expecting a similar approach from the offense. VMI has been disruptive with their pressures and has really good size in the secondary, as we’ll need something from our run game to counter that. I think building on the few positives from last weekend starts with solidifying the O-line. The two-deep lists Bo Fowler or Jason Smith at RG, so we may see #72 and #67 rotating.

Possessions – Bucknell had the ball 12 times against VMI. Richmond continues to play in lower possession count games however that’s not likely to continue given how much VMI throws the ball on offense. The goal isn’t to win a 38-35 shootout but it’s going to be a lot harder to win with only two TDs. If we do find ourselves with the ball 11+ times we have to match their volume. Should the Spiders score early it will be interesting to see if our mindset mirrors this or if we play towards our defense closing out the game.

Personnel – The response to not having Jaiden Fair and Sean Clarke against UNC was to play more running backs. 55% of snaps against Carolina saw the Spiders in 20 personnel (2 RBs, 0 TEs), with 42% of snaps in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE). We hadn’t seen much 20 personnel in the first two weeks however the Spiders shifted focus towards the running backs with Clarke out. That grouping did help us getting wider in the run game, as constant motions/swings forced UNC to account for another offensive player out wide, but it likely hurt our ability to throw the ball downfield. There’s a trade off with every personnel set so while I want to see how we expand the running/option game in 20 personnel, we may need to see less of it overall to improve our passing.

Defensive looks – VMI lists a 3-4 defense in their game notes however they showed a lot of three safety looks (below) against Bucknell.

No matter what package they use this is a defense that will blitz. Bucknell dropped back 40 times and was blitzed on 18 of those plays. Their different linebacker/safety groupings allows the Keydets to generate pressure off the edge. All four sacks against the Bison came off the edge so the UR tackles have their hands full once again. Gabe Carbajal remains sidelined meaning we’re still searching for better tackle play, with both tackles having the lowest PFF grades of guys who have played in all three contests. If we keep a RB in for more protection Jamaal Brown is the best option however his fumble against UNC could limit his playing time. If this is another area Michael Creamer can do well in, expect #9 to get even more snaps.

Redzone – VMI has allowed scores on all eight redzone trips from opponents, with seven of them being touchdowns. Richmond was 3/4 on scoring redzone TDs before an 0/3 outing against UNC (2 FGs, 1 turnover on downs), so it was a better start against FCS competition compared to how we ended last year. It’s important we see that continue and it could be the difference if the VMI offense does prove to be a challenge.

Spiders on Defense

VMI is going to throw the ball often and look to generate big plays. This is not a methodical offense with balance – against Bucknell they threw for 362 yards while rushing for just 59. Their running backs average under 3 YPC, as they lean on quarterback Collin Shannon to guide the offense. Our D-line shouldn’t have many problems stopping the run but their passing game has real firepower to threaten our secondary.

Aiden Jones & Tristan Woodley – VMI boasts two incredibly strong offensive tackles. The two have not allowed a sack through three games, with Jones grading in the top 10 and Woodley in the top 30 across all FCS tackles. They also cater their run game towards these guys, finding more success going wide compared to the A/B gaps. Seeing Byrd and Hoilette battle these two will be fun to watch and it likely puts more focus on Matei Fitz, as he’ll have much easier matchups inside. VMI’s center/guards have allowed all six sacks so this could be the game where Richmond defensive tackles take the spotlight.

Blitzes – The Spiders still aren’t a blitz heavy team (we haven’t needed to be) but there is a slight uptick in 2025. Given VMI’s improved pass protection it will be interesting to see if we throw an extra blitz or two their way. Against Bucknell they completed 15/22 passes when not blitzed and only 6/17 facing a blitz. It’s not surprising to see a lower completion percentage against pressure however this was a weak point for them in 2024 as well. If our secondary struggles to stay with their downfield passing attack we may see Justin Wood ramp up the pressure.

Downfield passing – VMI can throw the ball and they aren’t shy about it.

Nearly 50% of their attempts are thrown 10+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage, accounting for over 500 yards. QB Collin Shannon still completes 63% of his passes in the 0-9 yard bucket, so while big plays are the goal he can still move the chains with shorter passes. Saying this is a big game for our secondary is the understatement of the year. They’re going to attack us on any down and will really test our ability to limit big plays.

VMI wide receivers – Three big receivers for the Keydets. Sweeney and McNeely are the outside receivers, both listed at 6′ 4″. Grevious takes 94% of his snaps in the slot and is listed at 6′. If Fraser (6′) and Geronomi (6′ 2″) start we aren’t giving up much size outside, with Burney (5′ 9″) facing a taller slot receiver than usual.

All three can generate explosive plays. They each get 5+ targets/game and average > 15 yards/reception. Overall VMI has five receivers with a reception of 30+ yards. This is no surprise given their passing chart however it highlights just how committed they are to stretching the field and putting strain on opposing secondaries. 29 of their 46 1st downs have come via the pass so they’ll continually turn to their best players in the biggest spots. This is the chance for our youthful secondary to turn the page in a big moment. The entire group needs their ‘A’ game tomorrow.

Special Teams

Both teams are steady on special teams. The Keydets are 0/2 on field goals but both were over 50 yards. They did block a punt however that was against D-II Ferrum.

How we do on kickoff returns looks to be the most interesting area. After his 99-yard TD return against Lehigh, Isaiah Dawson is averaging just 17 yards/return on the following seven kickoff returns. VMI is allowing over 25 yards/return so this could be a game for #10 to get back on track. He’s been great on offense and I’d love to see him continually impact the game on special teams as well.

Next Post

Game 4 – 2025: VMI recap – Monday, September 22nd