The final leg of our three-game road trip to kick off the 2025 season lands the Spiders in Chapel Hill. This is our annual FBS money grab game, as Richmond gets $400,000 in return for playing an ACC foe.

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina has an active bowl streak spanning six seasons. Despite Mack Brown making a bowl game every year since 2019, they were 1-5 in those bowl games and never had a 10-win season. In came Bill Belichick last December and he wasted no time revamping the roster, adding roughly 70 new players (both true freshmen and portal additions) in the offseason. It’s been a slower start than they would’ve like, getting waxed by TCU on Labor Day and earning a 20-3 victory over Charlotte last weekend. Like Richmond, offense has been their struggle. Obviously struggling to score against TCU and Charlotte isn’t the same as struggling against Lehigh and Wofford, however it leads to interesting matchups at a few spots.

The biggest thing in these games is taking away more than just the final score. When you’re big underdogs against a Power-4 school there’s a lot more than simply winning or losing. Our defense gets a chance to see just how strong they can be up front, while the secondary gets the first true test of the year. Offensively we’ve got a lot to work through – despite being outmanned we can still see progress in our approach and see how two new starters fit into the scheme.

Odds

Line sits at UNC -21.5, with a total of 47.5. Projected score is 35-13 North Carolina.

Spiders on Offense

Offensive line – The Two-deep shows us with the same five starters so we’ll see if these guys gel more in game 2. Through two games the UNC D-line hasn’t done a lot. They’re allowing 4.4 YPC, while only forcing one sack and three TFLs. Not much disruption so I’m curious how well our pass protection can hold up. Their size and depth will always be superior over the course of an entire game but that doesn’t mean we can’t put a couple drives together. Having only seen our current combination against Wofford I’ll be watching to see how long we can withstand an FBS front.

Wide receivers – With Sean Clarke sidelined my initial thought was that we’d see more four WR sets, however Jaiden Fair’s injury alongside this makes it tricky. If we do go four-wide it will be Griffin, Veney, Dawson, and Andreas Hill. All four bring a good blend of size and speed however I’d like to see a couple guys used differently.

First is Dawson – of his seven “receptions,” five are pop-passes (WR sweeps) and two are quick throws into the flat. Don’t get me wrong, #10 is the only guy who’s brought any horizontal success to this offense and it’s been extremely valuable, but he’s more than that as a receiver. If we can get him going vertical he’ll continue to generate big plays and be a matchup nightmare for defenses.

Second, and for me most importantly, is Ja’Vion Griffin. J5 is quietly leading the Spiders in every statistic. First in targets (9), first in receptions (8), first in yards (63). The issue is 7/9 targets are within five yards of the LOS. It’s been nice grabbing four yards on 1st down but Griffin has consistently graded well both in the 10-19 yard range, as well as over the middle. I think getting #5 featured in a more prominent role would really help this group during Jaiden Fair’s absence.

UNC pass defense – The Tar Heels allowed 250+ passing yards in each game. We have an opportunity to get more vertical in our passing attack, especially in the intermediate level (10-19 yards downfield).

Two games in and they’re getting burned by intermediate passing. TCU & Charlotte threw 1/3 of their passes to this depth, resulting in a 68% completion rate for 227 yards. We can’t shy away from attacking this area of the field. With nothing to lose, the Spiders should at least try to push the ball further downfield and see if it can develop our passing game.

Throws behind the LOS – More throws downfield need to result in less throws behind the line of scrimmage. We didn’t see any RPOs into the flat in game 2 however we aren’t blocking well enough on any WR screens/RB swing passes so far. We’ve thrown 12 passes of this nature to RBs/WRs – the results are less than 1 yard/play, multiple drops, and our longest gain being four yards. Basically, this isn’t working. Outside of pop-passes to Dawson these have been drive killers and are only getting harder the closer defenses play to the line of scrimmage.

Spiders on Defense

Our defense will determine how long we hang around. The North Carolina offense looks a lot like us – very few touchdowns and not many sustained drives. Of their 24 drives this year, 13 have gone for 10 yards or less. FBS/FCS games tend to result in the little guy getting worn down, and our only chance to limit that is by getting quick stops.

Fast start – UNC has only four TDs and 34 points to start the season. 17 of those 34 points are in the 1st quarter, with both opening drives against TCU and Charlotte resulting in touchdowns. The UR defense has pitched shutouts in both of our 1st quarters. Avoiding an early hole against a fast-starting team would go a long way towards hanging with an FBS opponent. If we can get early stops it would make for a very interesting 1st half.

Defensive line – I know these guys are excited for this battle. UNC hasn’t gotten much push in the run game, gaining just 3.2 YPC. Only one player has more than 50 rushing yards as they’ve tried a lot of combinations without much luck. Pass protection has been much better, allowing just two sacks, so how well we compete with them in both aspects will really set the tone. Our defense is built around the D-line and there’s no bigger game to make a statement in.

Play-action – Competing in the trenches is extra important given their offensive approach. While the running game hasn’t gotten them far it has played a big part in setting up the pass. Play-action passing is a big part of their gameplan and it really shows in their early season splits.

• Without play-action | 13/23 – 61 yards – 0 TDs, 1 INT
• With play-action | 8/12 – 163 yards – 1 TD, 0 INTs

Without play-action they look like us, not able to get the ball downfield and lacking consistent gains. With play-action they’ve found chunk plays, which has helped overcome their inability to sustain drives. Three UNC receivers have a catch of 35+ yards so you know they’re looking to hit the big play. This will be the first time our new secondary faces an opponent that can consistently stretch the field. UNC won’t be the bar we use to determine how good we can be, however it will give us the first glimpse of any progress from the younger Spiders.

Tackling – The Tar Heels will throw a lot of looks at us, getting their QB on the move and attacking the flats. That’s likely in response to their rushing struggles and a big factor in why they’ve only allowed two sacks. This will challenge our defensive discipline and force us to tackle in space. Overall we’ve done fairly well tackling, with Lee Bruner IV the highest rated Spider. While no one loves your free safety making too many tackles he’s filling the void left by Jabril Hayes well. Like all the areas I’ve mentioned, there’s a difference between doing it against Wofford and doing it against UNC.

3rd down – With over 1/2 of their drives not going 10 yards it’s no surprise the Carolina offense is bad on 3rd down. Converting just six of 25 attempts, their 24% ranks 125th in the nation. Coming off an 0/11 shutout this is another area that will give Spiders fans some hope. We’re off to a good start defensively in 2025 (7th in the FCS) after an uncharacteristically mediocre 2024 season.

Special Teams

UNC is 8/8 on kicking touchbacks, so don’t expect many opportunities for Isaiah Dawson tomorrow. Punt return will be much more interesting, with Quanye Veney replacing the injured Jaiden Fair. Veney has looked much better to begin 2025 and with the extent of Fair’s injury unknown he could be in this role for a while.

On the other side they haven’t done much in their return game through two weeks, averaging just 21 yards/kickoff return and totaling only five punt return yards. Will McManus drilled his first touchback last weekend so I’d love to see him build on that.

The thing I want to see most is for us to attempt a field goal. Jayden Alsheskie still doesn’t have a field goal attempt in his career, so whether it’s him or Jackson Bonser we need to see someone kick before we resume FCS games.

Next Post

Game 3 – 2025: North Carolina recap – Monday, September 15th