Richmond beats William & Mary to finish at 10-2 (8-0 CAA).

Relevant FCS Results

Let’s start with the good news. The game that had to go our way did, as Montana State whipped Montana 34-11. Montana now has 4 losses and has no chance at a seed.

The bad news is everything else:

#4 South Dakota defeats #1 NDSU and locks up a seed. They may have still gotten one anyways but they’re certainly a seed now.

#5 UC Davis defeats Sacramento State.

#6 Incarnate Word defeats East Texas A&M Commerce.

#7 Idaho defeats Idaho State.

#8 Mercer defeats Furman. The Bears finish 10-2 and will be ahead of Richmond, since they beat Wofford in the regular season and we… well we played Wofford.

Bracket projections

Predictions from the experts below:

Sam Herder – Richmond at #8, with Incarnate Word at #9.

College Sports Madness – Richmond at #7, ahead of #8 Idaho and #9 UIW. UR ahead of Idaho feels unlikely.

Craig Haley – Richmond at #9, with Incarnate Word at #7 and Mercer at #8.

Brian McLaughlin – Richmond at #7, with Mercer at #8 and Incarnate Word at #9.

Dom Izzo – Richmond at #8, with Rhody at #9 and Incarnate Word at #10.

What it means

Glad to see most of the top analysts have UR getting a bye. As you can see, they think it’s coming down to Richmond and Incarnate Word for the final bye. Both are 10-2, both are conference champions. UR’s advantage is having only one FCS loss and the better win. The argument against is that UIW has been ranked higher throughout the season and has the better strength of schedule.

If Richmond doesn’t get a bye the Wofford game will be a huge regret, however our schedule will haunt us just as much:

• Charleston Southern: 1-11
• Delaware State: 1-11
• North Carolina A&T: 1-11
• Bryant: 2-10

Four of our opponents combining for just five wins is disgusting. Bad luck with Charleston Southern, who was a solid game when we scheduled them. We’ve been killed by our “poor” CAA schedule the past two seasons, as skipping Rhody, Villanova, UNH, and Stony Brook brought our strength of schedule down significantly.

Potential matchups

If we get a bye, don’t be shocked if they matchup us up with Rhode Island. Feels like Richmond/Incarnate Word is the easy #8/#9 prediction but the committee loves putting CAA teams against each other. We saw it in 2015 and 2023, so my gut tells me Rhody is in our future.

If we do play in the first round, Richmond will host a geographically close opponent. Probably one of the following:

• Lehigh – Patriot League champs
• Eastern Kentucky – potential UAC at-large
• Any bubble team from Tennessee – there are three: UT Martin, Tennessee Tech, and Tennessee State

Central Connecticut State qualified, however it feels like they’ll play Villanova or Rhody.

Next Post

Game 12 – 2024: William & Mary recap – Monday, November 25th