“They don’t like us. We don’t like them.” Coach Huesman set the tone for this year’s Capital Cup early in the week, before Richmond and William & Mary play one final time as CAA foes. The Spiders are searching for an 8-0 conference record and a 1st round bye, while the Tribe sit squarely on the playoff bubble looking for a quality win.

William & Mary Tribe

High hopes for W&M in the preseason, picked as a top 10 team surely set to return to the FCS playoffs. They started out 4-1, but three CAA loses in their next six games has them outside of the top 25 and in the “First Four Out” of playoff bracketology. A win puts them in the playoffs, so expect an already important rivalry game to have extra intensity. Six of the last seven Capital Cups have been decided by one score or less and this one is set to continue that trend.

Betting

Line should open somewhere around Richmond -4, with an over/under of 52. Projected score is 28-24. Spiders have allowed point totals of 24, 24, and 21 in November, so we’ll need an even better effort to keep this Tribe ground game below that number.

Spiders on Offense

Deep threat – Who’s going to take the top off of defenses with DeGennaro out? That’s the question this offense has to answer moving forward, as #11 has been our primary deep threat the past two seasons. Below are the receiver targets on throws of 20+ yards since 2023:

Landon Ellis is getting all of the attention right now as UR’s top target but expect Griffin and Garcia Jr. to be the ones filling DeGennaro’s void. Ellis will continue to operate in the more intermediate zones, and I’m hoping some combination of Griffin/Garcia Jr. will be able to stretch the defense and keep this offense moving efficiently. We’ve seen what happens when we can’t attack downfield.

Which offense will we see? – The Spiders’ offensive approach changed exiting the bye week, with our best two halves of football coming against Delaware and Bryant. What we’ve done since then hasn’t mirrored those two games, something I’ve been highlighting in the run/pass splits. I said I would compare those overall trends, so below are the 1st halves of Delaware & Bryant (2nd half was garbage time) compared to our three November games.

Delaware/Bryant (red) shows a very balanced 1st down and slightly pass oriented 2nd down. November (blue) has seen the Spiders run it on 2/3 of 1st downs and slightly run oriented on 2nd downs. Two very different approaches, something I’ve been surprised by after scoring 10 TDs in our 12 1st half drives against Delaware & Bryant.

Things may swing back towards the numbers in red – William & Mary has been vulnerable against the pass in recent weeks and Richmond needs to capitalize. They’ve allowed 240 passing yards in four of their last five games, with two games exceeding 300 yards. Opponents have done it by throwing early & often, as well as taking shots downfield. Here’s the passing chart for W&M’s three CAA losses:

A healthy % of downfield shots in these games, while averaging 29 pass attempts. The Spiders need to let Coleman sling it – cutting him loose is the best version of this Spiders’ team and will lead to our offense scoring 30+ points for the first time in November.

Redzone – W&M’s redzone defense has been a solid for most of the season but has been a huge factor when they lose. In seven FCS wins they’ve allowed 12 TDs on 22 trips (55%). In their three loses that number jumps, allowing TDs on 10 of 13 trips (77%). The Spiders had a good redzone day last weekend and will need to maintain that. W&M is excellent in the redzone on offense (more below), so we’ll need to match their productivity.

Offensive line – The Tribe D-line is not as physical as they’ve been in past years. Run defense has dropped slightly while QB sacks, pressures, and TFLs are down significantly. Gone is John Pius (Wisconsin) which is no doubt a factor, and the Richmond O-line enters with what should be a clear advantage. This needs to be a game where our O-line wins the line of scrimmage early and sets the tone.

The Spiders have only allowed three sacks twice this year while running for our highest total in a decade. We’ve done that without starting left guard Keith Gouveia, however #66 was back in action last weekend. He played 22 snaps against Hampton and should see more tomorrow. He and Scott Hummel are listed as “OR” on the depth chart, so we may have rotating lineups at both tackle and guard in this one.

Spiders on Defense

Can our defensive line hold up? – This is going to shock you, but William & Mary runs the ball… a lot.

Top of the CAA in rushing offense three of the past four seasons, and it’s no different this year. They have three of the top 15 individual performers in the CAA, led by Bronson Yoder. Yoder averages 99 YPG, while running back Malachi Imoh (61 YPG) and quarterback Darius Wilson (55 YPG) are great compliments to a three-headed rushing attack.

We know our D-line our thin. The starters have played great, but the wear and tear of a full season is starting to hit in November. Richmond has allowed our two highest rushing totals by FCS opponents in the past two weeks. Some of that is due to facing better running teams, however I think the Campbell and Hampton games look a lot different defensively if we played them five weeks earlier. I’m guessing we’ll see true freshman Braxton Lassiter inserted into the rotation for some needed depth, but this is really about how well, and how long, our starters can battle up front.

It’s overly simplistic but if you stop W&M running the ball, your chances of winning are pretty solid. In three FCS losses they averaged 4.1 YPC and only 165 yards on the ground. In seven FCS wins, those numbers jump to 6.4 YPC and 298 total yards. All eyes are on our D-line to stay in the fight and limit this Tribe rushing attack.

Darius Wilson – This dude has torched us in back-to-back seasons. In 2022, Wilson threw for 227 yards on just nine completions, while rushing for 42 yards and two TDs. He followed that up in 2023 with 247 passing yards on 12 completions, along with 65 yards rushing. The Spiders haven’t been able to slow down #11 at all and it makes this Tribe offense impossible to stop. We know they’re going to run it, so our secondary has to limit chunk plays in the passing game. If we can’t force a couple INTs or allow 20+ yards/completion, it will be a long day for the UR defense.

Conversions

William & Mary is super-efficient in two key areas – 3rd down and redzone:

3rd down – The Tribe convert 49.6% of 3rd downs, good for 1st in the CAA and 6th in the FCS. Spiders have struggled here recently – we were allowing just 32% of conversions but gave up 63% the past two weeks. Need to see a big improvement tomorrow.

Redzone – They’ve scored TDs on 34/46 redzone trips – the 10th best TD % in the FCS. For comparison, Richmond has two more redzone trips (48) yet nine less TDs (25). Holding them to a few field goals would go a long way to keeping their offense in check.

Special Teams

Spiders will have the advantage in field goal kicking. William & Mary is only 5/8 on FGs, usually opting to go for it in fringe situations. Richmond has the better two kickers in this one, and after Peskin didn’t kick against Hampton due to a back injury I’m curious who will get PAT/FG duties.

The Tribe has the 2nd most touchbacks in the CAA, so I’m not expecting a lot from our return unit. We didn’t return any kicks against Hampton, so I’ve got no idea if any substantial changes have been made.

What I do know is we’ll need a solid day from Aaron Trusler. W&M is 1st in the CAA in punt return average at 15.1 yards/return. That’s aided by a 90-yard touchdown return against Bryant, however they also returned a blocked punt against VMI for a TD in the season opener. UR punt unit will need to be at our best in this one.

FCS Preview

Top 8

The below is all contingent on Richmond finishing 10-2 (8-0 CAA):

Bracket Projections

Sam Herder – Has Richmond #7, ahead of UIW, Montana, and South Dakota (projecting a loss to NDSU)

College Sports Madness – Has Richmond at #7, ahead of UIW, Idaho, and Montana.

Craig Haley – Has Richmond at #10, behind UIW and Montana.

Brian McLaughlin – Has Richmond #8, ahead of UIW and Montana.

Most important game is Montana. Can’t have the Grizzlies defeat #2 Montana State and finish at 9-3. That would assure them a seed and kill our chances. South Dakota is tricky, because a loss would leave them at 8-3 with a great schedule but win only seven D-I wins. Is that enough for a bye?

If South Dakota maintains a seed, we have UIW, Idaho, Mercer, and Richmond for the final three spots. A loss from any of those three would guarantee UR a bye. If all three win, Mercer and Idaho likely stay ahead of UR due to ranked wins – UIW is the team we have the best chance at jumping.

Next Post

2024 FCS Bracket prediction – Saturday night/Sunday morning