Homecoming weekend in Richmond. The Spiders bring a six-game winning streak into November with some tricky opponents on deck. Towson has played its best football in the biggest games, so we’ll need a strong performance to stay atop the CAA standings.

Towson Tigers

A very misleading 4-4 record for the Tigers. Their losses include FBS Cincinatti, North Dakota State (in the Fargo Dome), and a heartbreaker at Villanova. Like the Spiders they’ve struggled in “easy” games, with one score wins against Morgan State and Norfolk State, however a decisive road victory last weekend at Monmouth shows this team can show up in the big moments.

Towson will be the most balanced team UR has played, with Coach Huesman calling them “the best 4-4 team in the country.” Despite likely being knocked out of playoff contention with four losses, I’m still expecting an inspired effort from the Tigers.

Betting

Richmond -7 with an over/under of 49 seems to be the consensus. Projected score is 28-21. After Towson’s win at Monmouth last week it’s understandable that UR is just a one TD favorite… but it’s hard to not like Richmond only laying seven points at home.

Spiders on Offense

Turnovers – Richmond went from having seven turnovers in our first four games to having just one the past four weeks. We’ve been excellent at taking care of the ball, something that has played a huge part of Towson’s wins. The Tigers have only won the turnover battle three times this season – both CAA wins and the near upset of Villanova.

In our two losses, our turnover differential is -4. During the six-game winning streak, that differential is +8, including just three giveaways. The defense has played a huge part in this but seeing this offense continue to push the ball downfield, all while protecting it even better, has been a huge bonus. Winning this battle again tomorrow would severely limit Towson’s upset potential.

500+ yards of offense – Richmond put up more than 500 yards of offense for the second time this season. We’ve done it against Delaware State and Bryant, so by no means difficult competition. The promising part is that many UR teams have found themselves in this spot. You have to go back to 2017, with NFL draft pick Kyle Lauletta at QB, to find a season where UR had three games with 500+ yards of offense. With four regular season games still to play, if the offense can surpass the 500-yard mark for a third time I think it would prove we have another gear and really show just how high the ceiling can be for this group.

Gameplan – Very interested in how Coach October approaches this game. Statistically, Towson has an average run defense (7th in the CAA), however I think that’s due to a strong schedule. Most opponents have rushed for less yards than their respective season averages against the Tigers, including strong ground attacks like W&M and NDSU. Last time out, Towson held Monmouth to just 56 yards rushing, a huge factor in holding the CAA’s highest scoring offense to a mere 14 points. Another great test for our O-line, and although I’m not expecting ZPS to tally another 150 yards, being able to push back against one of the more physical teams in the CAA would open up plenty of opportunities in the passing game.

Where the Tigers are most vulnerable is through the air. Towson allows the second most passing yards/game in the CAA (255), along with the second highest YPA (8.4). They only have two interceptions all season, second fewest in the CAA. No doubt we’ll be looking for chances to move the ball through the air, and I’d imagine there’s extra emphasis on generating big plays this week.

Across their four CAA games there’s been a clear blueprint of how they win. In wins against W&M and Monmouth, plus a one-point loss to Villanova, the Tigers have kept things in front of them and avoided big plays through the air. Here’s the passing chart in those three games:

Those three teams tried to push the ball downfield, with 29% of attempts in the 16+ bucket, however the Tigers limited the completions to just 26% and only gave up 12 passing plays of 15+ yards. The Stony Brook game was the exact opposite – the Seawolves went 6/6 on deep passing attempts and had 10 plays of 15+ yards through the air. Coleman will need to take what the defense gives him, but capitalizing on big play opportunities will be critical to sustained success.

Spiders on Defense

A very balanced offense from Towson this season. Not flashy, but consistent. They throw it for just over 200 yards/game in CAA play, while rushing for 181. They’re at their best when they maintain that balance and it will be on the UR defense to disrupt their typical offensive flow.

Sacks & TFLs – Negative plays have been a good indicator for Towson’s offense, so Richmond’s ability to cause disruption in the backfield will dictate the game on this side of ball. When they allow three sacks their record is 0-3 – when allowing two or less their record is 4-1. A big reason teams like Morgan State (six TFLs) and Norfolk State (nine TFLs) were able to stay in the game was due to negative plays. The Spiders have 3+ sacks in half of our games so far and will need another strong effort against a veteran Towson O-line (two seniors, three juniors).

Sean Brown – Senior QB Sean Brown won’t light up the stat sheet but seems to always keep Towson in the game. 64% completion rate, five INTs, and 192 YPG. He won’t hit a ton of chunk plays in the passing game but does do a great job of attacking the middle of the field.

You won’t see many teams throwing the ball between the numbers this often, and as you can see they really focus on short range passing. Yards after the catch is a key element of Towson’s offense so the Spiders will not only need to defend underneath, but tackle as well.

Richmond run defense – Richmond boats the #2 run defense in the CAA and is on pace to maintain the high standard set in recent seasons.

It started with the incredibly physical 2021 team and has continued since – top 20 in the FCS for four straight seasons if things hold, however the road gets much more difficult for this 2024 D-line heading into November.

Three of our four CAA games have come against bottom-5 rushing teams, while three of our next four come against the top half of our league. #1 W&M and #3 Hampton will close out the season, with a solid Towson ground game kicking off our November push. I don’t need to recap how thin we are upfront – we’ve managed that well. What will really define this defensive line is how they control the trenches against great rushing offenses in the late weeks of a season. Plenty of teams play well in September but you don’t put up the numbers above without being just as tough in November. If these guys continue to dominate against all levels of CAA competition, the Spiders will be a tough out in December.

Devin Matthews/Tyrell Greene Jr. – The Tigers boast two of the CAA’s top 10 rushers, with both Matthews and Greene Jr. tallying over 70 yards/game. The duo has combined for over 100 yards in every game this season, as their offense emphasizes getting them the ball in various ways. Towson runs inside, outside, and gets the ball to the flats. Matthews/Greene Jr. also average 3 receptions/game, so our linebackers will have a difficult task in the open field. Teams have really tried to get our LB corps in space this season with decent success, so I’d imagine that’s been a focus this week in practice. Richmond needs to contain Towson’s versatile running backs to win this game.

Special Teams

Towson has the second fewest touchbacks in the CAA so Jerry should have his chances in the return game. It’s been a while since we had a big return, as Garcia Jr. only has two kick returns the past four games. That’s mostly a product of us playing great defense, but it would be a huge boost for the Spiders if he could make a splash on KOR.

The Tigers had an up and down September, allowing two blocked field goals against Villanova, along with a blocked punt and punt return TD against NDSU. They’ve blocked multiple kicks of their own, so I’m hoping we found something on film that will lead to a key special teams play tomorrow.

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Game 9 – 2024: Towson recap – Monday, November 4th