One last time as conference rivals for the Spiders and the Blue Hens. After a wild finish in 2022, this year’s clash will have a big impact on the playoff picture for Richmond once again.

Delaware Blue Hens

Delaware has been dominant halfway through the season. Top 3 in the CAA in most categories and winning by an average of 24 points each game. In their final year in the CAA before jumping to the FBS, the playoff ineligible Blue Hens come into Robins Stadium on a roll. The question isn’t if they’re a good team, but if they’re truly THAT good or just a product of an easy schedule?

Delaware’s six opponents are 14-21 this year. None of them have a winning record, and their FCS strength of schedule is in the bottom half of the country (86th). I think it’s valid to question if their scoring margin says more about them or their opponents, but let’s not act like Richmond isn’t in the same spot. All four of UR’s wins have come against opponents with just one win on the season, leading to an abysmal 7-24 combined record for our FCS foes to date. It’s a pivotal game for finding out who’s real on both sidelines, and even more important for UR’s playoff chances.

In a 12-game season, 9-3 is a lock for the playoffs while 8-4 will feature bubble teams. If the Spiders want to control their destiny this is about as consequential as an October showdown can be. Per Massey Ratings, a win over UD would give Richmond a 46% chance to finish at 9-3 (or better). With a loss, that number drops to just 12%. Towson and William & Mary will be huge home games, however this team has a chance to climb out of the early 0-2 hole and put themselves on the right side of the bubble heading into November.

Betting

Delaware -6 or -7 is the general consensus, with a few projections slightly higher than a touchdown. O/U should be in the mid-50s for a projected score near 31-24. At the rate they score, it definitely feels like we’ll need to hit at least 30 points for a victory.

Spiders on Offense

Strength on strength – Delaware is statistically the best run defense in the CAA by a wide margin. They only allow 92 yards/game, which is 32 yards less than the 2nd place team (Richmond at 124). The Spiders come in with the 2nd best rushing offense in the CAA at 214 yards/game. Zach Palmer-Smith has 150+ yards in three straight games, while Delaware has only allowed one team to rush for more than 150 yards all season. Our O-line really came together down the stretch last season, yet got pushed around up at Albany. This is the first chance in 2024 against a high-level CAA opponent to prove they’ve taken the next step.

Running the ball won’t be the only way our O-line is tested. Delaware has 16 sacks in six games, good for 15th in the FCS. They’re a high disruption team, but it’s still tough to tell if these numbers paint a good picture – something that stands out in their sack numbers. 13 of their 16 sacks have come against their three worst opponents, while only three have come in games against Penn, Monmouth, and Maine. Penn had Delaware on the ropes, while Monmouth and Maine gave them good CAA battles. The Blue Hens will come in with all the numbers on their side but expect the Spiders to push back more than anyone they’ve faced so far.

Fast start – Six games in, one offensive TD in the 1st quarter for Richmond. I can keep bringing this up each week but at some point the urgency has to be there. This will be especially important tomorrow – Delaware is winning the 1st quarter 50-23 this year, while Richmond is losing 27-12. At some point that catches up to you…

Get Coleman going early –

“We’re still not throwing the ball anywhere near like we should or need to. People are going to do things to shut down the running game and we’re going to have to throw it.”

No one will argue with Coach Huesman’s thoughts on our recent passing performances. The offense hasn’t had the spark we were expecting, and I think it starts with getting Coleman settled in earlier in the game. The best version of our offense with #14 in the game is centered around early down passing and consistently attacking all levels of the defense. It’s a double-edged sword, as I hate taking away carries from ZPS, however I think we’ve got to help Coleman find his rhythm.

Rewatching the Elon and NC A&T games, things look overly basic. Not that each series needs to look overly complex, but the creativity we’ve seen from October’s offenses hasn’t been there of late. Delaware State felt different, not because the Hornets were bad and we should’ve scored 50+ points, but because of a variety of route combinations and designs to exploit their defense. This offense played its most creative game coming out of the bye week last season, and I think we need a repeat this year to get on track.

An easy way to help our cause is to take shots when there’s little downside. 2nd & short is a classic “take a shot” down, yet we seem uninterested in stretching the field at such an advantageous spot. Richmond had three 2nd & shorts against A&T – all resulted in called A-gap runs. Sure, we converted all three, but it’s another example of this team not jumping at the chance to break things open. Need to see a much more assertive approach tomorrow.

Red zone – One of the few areas Delaware’s defense struggles in. The Blue Hens have allowed 11 TDs on 16 opponent redzone trips, ranking 89th in the FCS in TD % allowed. In the past two weeks against CAA competition, they’ve allowed six TDs on six redzone trips, so clearly an area they’re vulnerable in. The Spiders need to not only take advantage of one of the few weak spots the Blue Hens have shown, but also use this as an opportunity to snap out of our redzone slump. Excited to see what this offense has ready with the extra time to prepare.

Turnovers – UD is top 10 in the FCS in turnovers forced at 14. They’ve forced multiple turnovers in five of six games, including at least one interception in every game. Coleman putting back-to-back clean sheets together after two INTs at Delaware State is promising, but this defense will really test his decision making and ability to protect the ball.

Spiders on Defense

Turnovers (again) – Turnovers should play a factor on both sides of the ball, as Delaware is #1 in the FCS in turnover differential. Only two giveaways on season for the Blue Hen offense, a great test for this UR defense that has been better in recent weeks winning the turnover battle. Truthfully, I’d take a push in the overall differential, but I think it’s important we force a turnover against a team that prides itself on taking care of the ball.

How will the secondary respond? – Delaware scores over 42 PPG, scoring 40+ points in 5/6 contests. They run the ball well, but their passing attack is what separates them. They have 3+ passing TDs in 5/6 games, along with 275+ passing yards in 4/6. The Blue Hens relentlessly push the ball downfield, and I’m sure they’ve enjoyed watching our coverage struggles on film this week.

Over 50% of attempts in the intermediate and deep zones, with tons of success in the 6-15 yard bucket (although Marker’s struggles to the left 1/3 of the field are interesting). We all know that’s been our weak point this season and I’m sure it has been priority #1 during the bye week.

Two years ago, our secondary was in a similar spot heading up to Delaware. That defense responded by holding them to under 200 yards passing, forcing four turnovers, and pitching a shutout through three quarters. I’m hoping the Spiders answer the call with an equally inspired effort.

Phil Lutz – First good UR opponent this season with an established #1 receiver. Lutz averages 91 YPG while hauling in eight TDs, the clear top threat of anyone they’ll target. Curious to see if the Spiders give some different looks to help guard #13.

D-line snaps – The plan to give guys rest against a bad A&T team obviously didn’t pan out. Here are the snap counts from two weeks ago:

Credit to the four starters. Playing all but 16 snaps, with Cam Byrd not leaving the field. Love the toughness from each guy, and while I’ve called for the younger guys to be more involved, I don’t anticipate that happening tomorrow. Coming off the bye in our biggest game so far, expect a heavy dose of the starting four D-linemen once again. Delaware has only allowed five sacks this season, so we’ll need a strong effort from a hopefully reenergized group.

3rd (& 4th) down – Delaware has the third highest conversion rate in the CAA (50%) on 3rd downs, while Richmond’s defense only allows conversions on 30% of attempts. 3rd downs are always crucial, but the Blue Hens could make 4th down just as important.

Delaware has the third most 4th down attempts in the FCS. They’ve gone for it 19 times, converting on 13. Plenty of their 4th down attempts come in the redzone and it puts added pressure on defenses. This could make or break a few drives for our defense, so I’m expecting at least one crucial 4th down to play a big factor in the outcome.

Special Teams

UD has 33 touchbacks on 46 kickoffs, so I’m not expecting Jerry to get many chances in the return game. Punt/field goal could be where the excitement happens, as the Blue Hens have both blocked three kicks and had three of their own blocked (2 PATs, 1 punt). Richmond won this matchup with field goals two years ago, maybe this time another special teams’ aspect is the difference maker.

I also enjoyed John O’Connor’s article this week on Aaron Trusler, and his impact provided during his time at Richmond. I’ve linked that below:

‘The Aussie,’ a touch more greedy, punts UR into good spots (richmond.com)

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Game 7 – 2024: Delaware recap – Monday, October 21st