This is a road game that playoff teams win. A must win for the Spiders in my eyes, as I just don’t think we can afford another 2-3 start. Elon will be fired up after non-conference struggles of their own so this team will need to bring their energy early down in North Carolina.

Elon Phoenix

An extremely deceiving 1-3 start for Elon. They played a tough non-conference schedule, facing FBS Duke, NC Central, Western Carolina, and ETSU. All three are solid FCS programs, with ETSU nearly beating #2 North Dakota State the week prior. This is a tough CAA matchup against a program that’s given us some trouble, with a big crowd scheduled for family weekend. Richmond will have a chance to pick up a huge CAA win in September, however the Spiders will need a much more complete effort than we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Betting

Elon will be slight home favorites, with an O/U around 48. Projected score is 25-23. Elon’s played stout defense so far, but Richmond had their way last season. Got to love a 50/50 road game to open the conference slate.

Fast CAA start

The early part of the CAA schedule has given Richmond trouble in recent years. You have to go back to 2015 to find even just a 2-0 CAA start.

No 2-0 starts the past seven full seasons, with four of those seasons including an early loss to the Phoenix. After a 2-2 non-conference record, a winning streak to start CAA play is necessary to get the Spiders back on schedule. With the Delaware game immediately following the bye week, there’s a big difference between entering that 2-0 vs 1-1. We need this team to exorcise the early season Elon demons tomorrow.

Spiders on Offense

Per the Wednesday press conference – Cam Coleman will start at QB, Kyle Wickersham is available, Nick DeGennaro is active, and Keith Gouveia is out for the season. Richmond adjusted well to these changes last weekend however CAA competition is a different animal.

What I’m watching for

Fast start – Richmond only has seven offensive points in the 1st quarter this season (TD v CSU). Thankfully Elon is a poor starting team as well, falling into a quick 17-0 hole last weekend, however we won’t keep getting away with such slow starts. Falling behind to a team fighting for their lives, with a big family weekend crowd behind them, is a poor recipe for a conference road win. Look for this offense to try and make a statement early on to get things rolling.

Respond to Huesman’s challenge – I had a calmer reaction to Delaware State compared to most that I read. Other’s reactions aren’t wrong – it was awful, and I probably should’ve felt the same way, but I didn’t. The defense had issues, we dropped passes, turned the ball over, etc. Despite all that, I got the impression the wakeup call was heard by this group. Throughout the struggles of the game there was still more urgency and assertiveness than we had seen so far, and while doing that against Delaware State isn’t anything to write home about, it could be the turning point.

It was also the most animated postgame press conference I’ve seen from Coach Huesman – demanding more out of practices on a consistent basis – furious about missed opportunities, rather than being simply being content with 38 points – challenging Cam Coleman to be elite and not just make some of the throws, but all of the throws. After our best offensive output of the season, there was a desire to shoot even higher and an unwillingness to accept anything below that, which was echoed by the players.

As great as that is, press conferences and better practices won’t take this team where it needs to. How this group responds in games, especially on offense, to the challenges presented to them will dictate the rest of the season.

Cam Coleman – Collegiate start #6 for the true sophomore, with this being the 9th game he’ll appear in the last two years. Another 300+ yard passing day in Dover, and while the excitement factor continues with #14, so do the interceptions. Coleman has INTs in 6 of 8 games he’s attempted a pass in, totaling nine picks in roughly 21 quarters of football. Some of those games are his first as a true freshman, with a couple INTs not entirely his fault, however Coach Huesman made it pretty clear he wasn’t too fond of multiple redzone interceptions last game. Interceptions will naturally increase the more we throw the ball, however a clean game from Coleman in September could go a long way for this group, and him personally.

We’ll likely see him put it up plenty of times tomorrow. DeGennaro returns, and the Phoenix have struggled to defend the pass. Elon allows 240 YPG in the air, 7.5 YPA, and both Western and ETSU had five different receivers record a chunk play in the passing game. I think the Spiders will feel comfortable attacking this Elon secondary, so expect 30+ attempts from Coleman in this one.

Redzone offense – Elon has conceded scores on 88% of opponent trips to redzone (14/16). Allowing four redzone trips/game is well above average, and Richmond comes in with at least three redzone trips in every game. If we continually move the ball downfield and make another three or four trips into the red area, the Spiders will win this game by finishing off drives. I’m sure we all remember the redzone debacle at the end of this game two years ago – I’m confident we learned our lesson.

Spiders on Defense

No official word in the presser, but with Zion Bryson not on the 2-deep it seems we’re down two DEs for the foreseeable future. Elon has had much more success through the air than on the ground, so after a shaky outing last weekend I’m expecting this secondary to get tested for 60 minutes.

What I’m watching for

Turnovers – Plenty of talk about Richmond’s offensive identity the past few weeks, but I think the defense is in the same spot. Most of our major statistics are in line with other seasons (3rd down defense, YPA allowed, run defense) except for turnovers. This group has felt a step behind so far in 2024, and while coverage is clearly a point of emphasis, the drop in turnovers is playing a large factor.

Only four turnovers in four games, behind the pace of the past three seasons and a much slower start compared to those same years. To add to this, all three interceptions so far have come against backup QBs. Elon has turned the ball over twice the past two weeks, so I’d imagine our defense will have a chance or two to make a game changing play.

Keep them one dimensional – Elon only runs for 113 YPG and has eclipsed the 150-yard mark just once in four games (NC Central). Averaging just 3.4 YPC, we need the front-7 to limit their run game and make this a one-dimensional offense. They’re more than capable of throwing the ball (236 YPG passing against FCS teams) but it’s much easier to guard a team if you aren’t as concerned about their run game. Elon will surely attack our pass defense tomorrow but that doesn’t diminish the role of the guys in the trenches.

Will Richmond blitz? – Coach Huesman noted he’s been hesitant to blitz some of these dynamic QBs we’ve faced early on, and the numbers back that up. Linebacker pressures/game have dropped from 7.5 last season down to 3. The corner blitz has been good to Richmond in recent years, yet that has dropped from 2.5 pressures/game down to 1. Not huge numbers, but when the game is roughly 60 snaps long that’s a much different approach than we’ve typically seen.

Matthew Downing is not a mobile quarterback, so this could be the game Coach Wood turns up the heat. Throw in 15 sacks allowed by Elon so far, and the UR pass rush could have a field day. Jeremiah Grant is currently second in the FCS with six total sacks, and it’s been awesome to see him develop into a premier pass rusher. Spiders should be looking for a 4+ sack day in this one.

Continue 3rd down success – Sometimes you just need to keep doing the things that you’re good at. Richmond has kept opponent 3rd down conversions to 29% so far, while Elon’s offense only converts 24% of their attempts. That’s 113th out of 123 FCS teams, so the Spiders must continue to dominate 3rd down situations.

Special Teams

Some opportunities for the Spiders in this phase of the game. The Phoenix have allowed two blocked kicks and will surely be on alert after Stocklinski’s block last weekend.

On kickoffs, they allow over 27 yards/return (112th in FCS), while the Spiders average 23 yards/return (24th in FCS). Jerry Garcia Jr. already has three returns of 30 or more yards, and it looks like #4 will get a few chances to give the Spiders’ offense solid starting field position.

Hurricane Helene

Week 5 of the season, first CAA road game at Elon, with a hurricane in the forecast. If that sounds a lot like 2022 it’s because it is. Exact same scenario we had last time down at Elon, and for the second straight trip it looks like we won’t get the worst of it. Should be blowing through today and all cleared out by gameday.

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Game 5 – 2024: Elon recap – Monday, September 30th