The only thing better than November football is December football. Richmond plays into December for the second straight season, something that we shouldn’t overlook. After a near upset of #2 Sacramento State in 2022 I’m sure this group is ready to break through and get to the FCS quarterfinals.

Albany

The #5 seed in the FCS playoffs and rightfully so. Three losses on the season, and two were against FBS opponents. Their only FCS loss was on the road to New Hampshire, and they picked up a decisive win against Villanova, the other Co-CAA champion. With that, the Great Danes are by no means unbeatable. They too struggled with Morgan State, beat 5-6 Towson by a TD, and only scored 17 offensive points against W&M. Their strength lies in their defense, but we match up well against them in a few key areas.

The outside narrative has been that UR was fortunate to have skipped playoff teams like Albany during the CAA regular season – I think this team is out to show that Albany might’ve been the lucky ones. Plenty for this group to prove tomorrow and I’m expecting a great battle between two physical teams.

Betting

Looks like the line will open near Albany -8 or -9, with the total in the high 40s. The biggest underdog we’ve been in an FCS game this season was at Rhode Island (9 points), and we know how that went. Projected score is roughly 28-20, which aligns with the typical games the Great Danes have played this season. Hard to bet against any team on a 7-game win streak getting more than a touchdown.

Spiders on Offense

The Albany defense boasts five 1st team All-CAA selections, most notably former Richmond cornerback Aamir Hall. Hall played in 24 games for the Spiders from the COVID 2021 season through 2022, making 20 starts. They’re also lead by CAA Defensive Player of the Year, Dylan Kelly. The Great Danes are 1st in the CAA in PPG allowed (17.2), 1st in rush YPG allowed (79.1), and 1st in sacks forced (42 in 12 games). A tremendous test awaits our offense.

Handle the pressure – You don’t average 3.5 sacks/game without having a great pass rush, and the Great Danes have just that. Their two 1st Team All-CAA selections on the D-line in Anton Juncaj and AJ Simon have combined for an astounding 23.5 sacks, 36.5 TFLs, and 20 QB hurries. This UR O-line has done a nice job in recent weeks against strong defensive lines but this is the best we’ve seen to date. I expect us to mirror what we did against Central with 6 and 7-man protections, which helped out our tackles and gave Wickersham time to work the ball downfield. I’m also hoping we can effectively use RB screens to ease the pressure. Savon Smith had a lot of success this season in the screen game and that would work to slow down the Albany rush.

Stay on schedule – UR ranks 117th in the FCS in 3rd down conversion percentage (26.8%), good for last in the CAA. There’s been some improvement during the 7-game win streak, with the percentage rising to 30.4%, but not much. The main factor is our 7.95 average yards-to-gain. The Spiders’ average 3rd down is essentially 3rd & 8, which isn’t a great formula to converting too often.

Our big play offense has mitigated this in recent weeks however Albany is the second-best team in the playoffs at limiting explosive plays (rankings compiled by Sam Herder). Albany will force us to string longer drives together, something we can’t do without converting our 3rd downs at a better clip. Staying on schedule in the early downs will afford us more 3rd & shorts, lead to more 3rd down conversions, and result in sustained scoring drives.

Maintain balance – In 10 FCS games, Albany has only allowed one team to rush for 100 yards (Towson). They haven’t faced a dual rushing attack like ours and I’m anticipating we’re going to take the fight to them this weekend. I don’t think we need 150+ yards on the ground to win but remaining committed to running the ball is important. Albany’s success is based on making teams one dimensional, and if the Spiders can find a formula to remain balanced (or even win the ground game) we could have another 30+ point day.

Red zone – Our 3rd down success hasn’t improved much, but our redzone scoring sure has. Richmond is 45th in the FCS in redzone TD percentage (63%) while Albany’s defense ranks 3rd (42%). The good news is the Spiders have shown tremendous improvement recently. The first eight games of the season we were scoring TDs on 52% of trips – the last four that number increased to 78%. You don’t beat top-5 teams on the road by kicking field goals in the redzone. The Spiders will need to excel in this area against one of the best in the FCS.

Spiders on Defense

Albany has been searching for its run game all season. Their offense is centered around QB Reese Poffenbarger, a Walter Payton Award finalist. He’s got a strong arm and isn’t shy about taking chances deep, and they’ve had to rely on his arm more than they would’ve liked due to their issues running the ball. The forecast for some rain could affect their offensive game plan but I’m expecting them to consistently test our secondary no matter what.

Dominate the line of scrimmage – Richmond’s biggest advantage is our front vs their offensive line. We can’t just win this match-up, we need to dominate it.

Albany runs for 125 yards/game at only 3.6 YPC, which are both in the bottom 1/3 of the FCS. They’ve only run for over 200 yards once and have been held under the Spiders’ average of 111 YPG five times this season. UR counters with the #2 CAA run defense and the highest TFL % of playoff teams, as this should be an opponent our defensive line feasts on. Albany did manage to run for 160 YPG in their last five games, however I think that was due to lesser competition. They haven’t faced this talented of a defensive line all season and I’m expecting the Spiders to control the LOS.

The O-line struggles for the Great Danes continue in the passing game, as they allow the 3rd most sacks in the CAA. Going back to the Morgan State, Towson, and W&M games where their offense struggled, pressure was a key indicator. The Great Danes allowed nine sacks and 10 QHs in those games, which lead to #7 throwing three INTs and having his completion percentage drop below 56%. We’ve seen our D-line limit opposing teams’ big play ability with pressure in recent weeks and we need to see that again tomorrow.

Win 1-on-1s in the secondary – I think everyone would agree we haven’t covered too well in recent weeks. Both W&M and Central gashed us for big plays in the passing game and Albany will look to do the same. Richmond is 102nd in the FCS in yards allowed/attempt at 8.08, with Albany 24th in the same category offensively.

The Great Danes have made up for their poor rushing attack with an aggressive downfield passing game, however that’s also led Poffenbarger to force plenty of passes. The few games I watched saw him make some incredible throws, and some questionable ones. This opportunistic Richmond secondary will be tested in 1-on-1s downfield, but they’ll also have chances to force a turnover. Limiting their big play ability by winning some 1-on-1 matchups could swing this game in UR’s favor.

Better start – The Spiders haven’t held a lead at the end of the 1st quarter since NC A&T (October 21st). For the season Richmond is losing the 1st quarter 82-62, while Albany is a fast-starting team, winning the 1st quarter 86-37.

Defensively, we’ve surrendered a 1st quarter TD in each of the past four games. Keeping Albany out of the endzone in the opening frame would be a great start to winning on the road and would put them in unfamiliar territory. Richmond has a clear 2nd half advantage against the Great Danes so finding early success would put Albany in a hole that they might not be able to climb out of.

Special Teams

Albany is steady on special teams. 75% on FGs, 3rd in the CAA in punting, and relatively average kickoff/punt returning. The only stat that stands out is they finished 14th in the CAA in net kickoff yardage at only 35 yards/kickoff. Opponents start around the 30-yard line on average, and the Great Danes only have one touchback the entire season. There will be opportunities (hopefully not too many) for Howard/Smith and our KOR unit, and a big return could go a long way when facing a strong defense.

FCS Preview

Next Post

Albany recap (Monday morning)