I can’t tell you I thought we’d be here two months ago, but man does it feel great to have another playoff game in the Brick House. The Spiders come in riding plenty of momentum, however the Eagles from North Carolina Central have plenty to prove. Richmond needs four strong quarters of football, and if they can do that we should see this team advance to Round 2.

North Carolina Central

Richmond has a history of playing MEAC teams in the 1st round of the playoffs.

• 2005: Richmond 38 – Hampton 10
• 2014: Richmond 46 – Morgan State 24
• 2016: Richmond 39 – NC A&T 10

Let me be clear – this team isn’t like those other teams. September of this season proved we’ve got to bring it each week, and if you watched the Eagles win the Celebration Bowl last season you would know just how explosive this group is. They’re no doubt disappointed about not getting a chance to face off against the SWAC champion in Atlanta, however this is their chance to showcase what they can do to the entire FCS. It might be a small crowd with a typical 1st round game feel, however we’ll need to match their intensity early on to avoid another MEAC loss in 2023.

Betting

If you don’t believe my praise for the Eagles, maybe you’ll believe Vegas. Richmond is only a 4-point favorite against Central, while plenty of other 1st round matchups are 14+ point spreads. Total isn’t as clear, as I’ve seen projections all across the 50s. Either way it’s evident that the hype around NC Central is real.

Spiders on Offense

The hype around Central may be real, however our offense during this win streak isn’t a fluke. We found our groove during October and simply need to keep that rolling. NC Central is vulnerable on defense and the Spiders match up really well in some key spots. We’ve seen this staff exploit defensive weaknesses each week and I’m expecting more of the same this Saturday.

Win up front – This needs to be a game we dominate up front. Richmond should have no issues controlling the line of scrimmage and it would pay off in a big way. For the season the Eagles allow 175 yards/game rushing, at 5.3 yards/carry. They play a base 4-2-5, so the size of their personnel will be in Richmond’s favor as well. We can lean on our O-line early for a strong start and wear them down throughout the 2nd half.

Recent trends also show UR should have a great day running the ball. They’ve allowed 200+ rushing yards in three of their past four games, while UR had its best two rushing outputs the past two weekends (235 v Elon, 196 @ W&M). Our running game has been trending upward for a while and it’s starting to really pay off. I expect that to continue this weekend.

Maintain assertiveness – At some point in these playoffs we’re going to need 20+ 2nd half points to win. Call it what you want – playing not to lose, being conservative, protecting the lead, etc. – but this offense has looked different the past few 2nd halves. I think that’s coming to an end as the scare at W&M should force us to keep our foot on the gas throughout the 3rd quarter.

Central’s defense gives up nearly 27 PPG and that number jumps even higher when you remove the cupcakes. This season they’ve played a D-II team and three teams that went 1-10. Remove those games and their PPG allowed rises to over 30, proving that this is a team we can attack for 60 minutes. At this point it’s about putting a full game together against a playoff team – we know this group can do it, now let’s see it. Work the ground game, let Wickersham find his wideouts, and don’t slow down.

Nick DeGennaro – Speaking of those wideouts, we can’t forget #11. Starting with Delaware State he was on a five-game TD streak, however he hasn’t scored since Rhode Island. He also caught 5+ passes in seven of our first eight games, yet in our past three he’s had seven TOTAL receptions. I’m a broken record on this but NC Central, like everyone else, does not have a corner to keep up with him all game. You hear the term “players, not plays” thrown around in big games and big situations and I think that applies here. I can’t imagine Coach October lets another game go by without DeGennaro making a huge impact.

How much do we keep running Wickersham? – I said all bets were off last weekend and apparently we took that to heart – 17 carries and plenty of hits taken for #16 (also plenty of blows delivered). During fall camp Huesman said running it 8-10 times was their goal for Kyle, but the past two weeks are challenging that statement. 13 against Elon, 17 against W&M, and no real indication that’s going to slow down. This is purely a question from me as I really don’t know where this leads. Is the goal now to run him 15+ times, or was that a product of the situation? He’s thrown the ball so well it’s hard to see him as a 15 carries/game type of QB, however he’s also run it so well I don’t want to give anyone else the ball on 3rd & short. No doubt this is being discussed as we move forward and I’m very curious to see what Saturday looks like.

On a side note about Wickersham, remember the obscure stat from the QB preview this summer? The last two R-So QBs to start for Richmond (8 years apart) went on to win the CAA, and another 8 years later that streak remains intact. Is another semifinal appearance on our horizon?

Spiders on Defense

As Davius Richard goes, so do the Eagles. The do-it-all quarterback is priority #1 to slowing this offense down, something that hasn’t been done often this season. They put up a lot of points, can score quickly, and feature a balanced rushing attack. It’s a style that we’ve struggled with before, but we’ve shown great strides in a few areas recently that make me confident.

Davius Richard – He’s an experienced QB that doesn’t make many mistakes. Richard throws for 192 YPG, completes 61% of his passes, and most importantly has only thrown three INTs. He ran for just under 60 YPG while amassing 35 total TDs (20 passing, 15 rushing) this season. When he’s played poorly this team struggles to produce. His two lowest yardage totals of the season (passing & rushing combined) are against Howard and Morgan State, a blowout loss and a near loss, respectively. If you can slow down #11 you can shut this Eagles’ offense down, but that’s no easy task.

I think there’s a notion that their numbers are inflated due to a weak conference, however our four similar opponents this season (Morgan State, A&T, Campbell, Elon) say otherwise.

Sure, Central’s PPG drops when you only factor in those four games, but that scoring number is dead even with our offense and still above 30 PPG. They put up some crooked numbers against bad teams but it’s still a very strong offense against good competition. We don’t want a shootout, however expecting to hold them to a number in the teens is a bit optimistic in my mind.

(*just FYI* UR’s PPG jumps an entire touchdown, up to 34.7, during our 6-game win streak).

Defensive line – There’s a clear blueprint on how to beat Central and it starts with getting pressure on Davius Richard. They’ve only allowed 12 total sacks on the season but when teams do get pressure everything changes. In the two games where they allowed just two or more sacks (Morgan State & Howard) they had their two lowest scoring totals (16 & 20 points).

NC Central starts a true freshman LT and a R-freshman LG. Richmond must win this battle on Saturday. Our strength is in the D-line and it’s likely our easiest path to slowing down their downfield passing attack. Similar to the Elon game, getting pressure on the QB can really limit downfield shots, something I wouldn’t mind seeing after our struggles last week. Assuming we continue the trend of not blitzing too often, most of the burden this weekend relies on the front 4. This group is better than two 3rd-team All-CAA selections so I’m hoping a chip on our shoulder brings out another level from these guys.

Win TO battle – A repeat section from last week, as the Spiders didn’t force a turnover for the 2nd game in a row. Not a huge deal but, like Elon and W&M, NC Central is also great at protecting the football. They’ve only turned it over six times this season – three INTs, three fumbles. It’s a good problem to have when not forcing a turnover for two games feels like a drought, so while not overly concerning it would be nice to see us get back to our old habits during our biggest stretch of the season.

Special Teams

Some fascinating numbers to look at when it comes to Central’s special teams. 4th in the FCS in blocked kicks (5), but they have allowed two blocked kicks of their own. 3rd in the FCS in punt return average (19.4 yards/return) with 2 TDs, yet 106th out of 122 FCS team in net yardage when they’re the ones punting. They have the 6th lowest KOR average in the FCS, while also kicking more out-of-bounds kickoffs than touchbacks.

Ultimately some areas of concern for the Spiders, but also some we can take advantage of. I’m not too worried about their punt returning with how strong our unit has been at forcing fair catches. The Eagles struggling in both kickoff facets is what excites me the most. Howard and Smith have played well since October but neither has broken free for the big one. Wouldn’t mind seeing that on Saturday.

All-CAA Selections

All-CAA selections were released on Tuesday. Congrats to these 2023 Spiders on their All-CAA honors:

FCS Preview

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North Carolina Central recap (Monday morning)