Nervous yet? Capital Cup, CAA Championship, and playoff bid all on the line tomorrow. The fact we aren’t fully in control of our playoff destiny adds another layer to this, yet nothing matters without a UR win. Take care of business and dare the committee to leave a Co-CAA champion out.

William & Mary

The Tribe will end with one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. Coming off a 10-1 season in 2022 that saw them win the CAA and get a national seed, W&M entered 2023 as a preseason top-5 team. All they’ve done since then is drop three CAA games, along with a loss to UVA, that had them out of the playoff picture by early November. The injury to Bronson Yoder in late September was critical, however I never expected this level of a drop-off. W&M will look to play the role of spoiler this season and keep UR from a CAA title for the second year in a row.

Betting

Total seems to be anywhere between 43-45 points, with the line at W&M -3. These teams are going in opposite directions right now but they’ll come out fired up for this one. Their issues on offense understandably keep this total low, and we aren’t guaranteed to score 24+ in this one. I won’t pass up Richmond getting points, but I do think it’s a reasonable line.

Spiders on Offense

Make no mistake about it – this Tribe defense is legit. They’ve only given up 30+ point once, and statistically they’re clearly a top-tier CAA defense:

• Scoring – 1st (17.7 PPG)
• Passing – 1st (151.4 YPG)
• Rushing – 5th (143.7 YPG)
• Sacks forced – 3rd (2.5/game)

Not many weaknesses from Mike London’s defense, and this level of FCS competition isn’t something our offense has seen this season. I do think there are a few areas we can gain an advantage but we need our A game. We’re all confident after how the last month has gone but their defense can absolutely win them this game if we aren’t sharp.

What I’m watching for

Run Wickersham – W&M hasn’t been great at stopping teams that run their QB. I’ve said plenty of times that we need to manage how often #16 runs it, but all bets are off tomorrow. I’m sure they saw the Elon game and preparing accordingly, however Wickersham’s ability to run in between the tackles is a clear UR advantage. The strength of their D-line is on the edge, the strength of our O-line is inside. I’m expecting UR to lean on Wickersham’s legs for a second week in a row.

Number of possessions – William & Mary does a nice job at shortening the game by keeping their time of possession high. With that, it limits the number of drives for their opponents:

• Monmouth – 8 drives
• Albany – 10 drives
• Hampton – 9 drives

The past three games opponents are only averaging nine drives against the Tribe, while the Spiders average just over 11 drives/game. One or two might not seem like a whole lot but if they’re able to limit us to single-digit drives that plays in their favor, especially in a projected low scoring game. Maybe we see a little tempo to try and speed things up, maybe not. In the end I like our offense more than theirs, so a game with 10+ drives is to our advantage.

What’s our plan for John Pius? – The 2022 Buck Buchanan runner-up wasn’t slowed down by the Spiders last season, posting 10 tackles, two TFLs, and a sack. He’s posted at least one sack in five of his past six games, so he’ll undoubtedly draw some extra attention. There aren’t any weak spots on this Tribe D-line, so after a great job against the Phoenix we’ll need an even stronger game from our O-line to win this one.

Man coverage – The Tribe aren’t shy when it comes to playing man, and I still don’t believe there’s a CAA team that can guard DeGennaro 1-on-1. If they bring pressure like they have the past few weeks we’ll have our chances to get Nick the ball. He finished the Elon game with only three targets but that won’t cut it in this one. Get #11 going early and force them to adjust their strategy.

Red zone – William & Mary is 9th in the FCS in stopping TDs in the redzone, only allowing teams to score TDs on 44% of trips (for reference Richmond’s defense is 11th at 45%). In a potentially low-possession game, any red zone trip we have becomes even more important. We saw great creativity in this area from October/Ross last weekend so I’m hoping they’ve got a few things dialed up once again.

Spiders on Defense

You beat William & Mary by stopping the run. Easy to say, not as easy to do. They aren’t as dominate as they were last season but it’s still a powerful rushing attack. 200 yards/game, 5 YPC, and a variety of personnel used. The passing game is a different story, as they throw for under 150 YPG and only attempt 21 passes/game. They burned us for some big plays last season so we’ll still need a strong game from the secondary, however winning this game starts with strong play upfront.

What I’m watching for

Make them pass – Again, this is obvious. They enter with a 58% completion rate while attempting the third fewest passes in the CAA. Passing isn’t their identity on offense and when teams can stop the run, W&M struggles to score. In their four lowest rushing total games, the Tribe suffered three of their losses. The only team they defeated with a low rushing output was Hampton (imagine losing to Hampton…). Our front-7 needs to be at their best in this one.

Who’s playing QB? – No, I didn’t put this in the wrong section – this week it’s our opponent that has QB questions. Starter Darius Wilson did not play at Hampton due to an upper body injury. Coach London said after the game that he was available in an emergency situation but wasn’t going to play otherwise. If he can’t go tomorrow the Tribe will turn to freshman Tyler Hughes. A solid recruit out of Georgia (offers from Campbell, W&M, and Western Carolina), but this freshman ain’t Cam Coleman. Hughes only completed 6 of 16 passes last week, which further emphasizes stopping the run. Making them one dimensional with an inexperienced QB is always a recipe for success.

Win TO battle – We forced zero turnovers against Elon, our first game this season without any. Like Elon, W&M is good at protecting the ball. Only 10 turnovers on the year, so while I wouldn’t plan on another three turnover game we need to restart our forced turnover streak.

Tackling from our secondary – William & Mary is going to put our secondary in plenty of 1-on-1 tackling situations. They do a great job of forcing corners to make tackles on the edges, both in running wide and attacking the flats in the passing game. If UR can continue to clog the middle, then Tomlinson and Stocker will be vital in both coverage and run support.

How often will the Spiders blitz? – W&M has looked bad against the blitz the past few weeks. Albany got home whenever they wanted and kept the Tribe behind the sticks all game. We aren’t a blitz heavy defense but I’d expect more than usual tomorrow. Some of this will be to stop the run, some will be to disrupt the passing game. I know Wheeler is all over the field each game but I expect to see him in the backfield more than usual in this one.

Special Teams

Two evenly matched special teams units, although the Tribe has the clear kicking advantage. Lopez has a good year going for the Spiders, making 9/13 FGs and 34/36 PATs, but Caden Bonoffski is 14/16 on FGs (including 8/8 from 40-49 yards) and hasn’t missed a PAT. You won’t find many FCS kickers that solid beyond 40 yards so the advantage goes to W&M.

For the season W&M has kicked only three touchbacks and had only six punts fair caught. Should be a day where we see multiple returns from both Milan Howard and Savon Smith, as both return units will have opportunities to impact the game.

FCS Bubble Watch

Below are the games that feature at least one bubble team and have a realistic chance of happening. There are other less likely upsets that would benefit us as well. If Monmouth and Delaware win, UR gets the auto-bid and this was a waste of time and unnecessary stress. Go Monmouth.

North Dakota State over Northern Iowa – A loss puts UNI at 6-5, with the Bison clearly in the field at 8-3. The opposite result lands both teams at 7-4 with UNI having ranked wins and a strong schedule. We need UNI out of the picture.

Austin Peay over Central Arkansas – If Austin Peay wins they go 9-2 and get the auto-bid, while UCA drops out at 7-4. Flip the result and you’ve got another 8-3 bubble team hanging around.

Morgan State over Howard – That would mean the MEAC auto-bid goes back to NC Central. If not, Central would be 9-2 and likely is getting an at-large (the MEAC champ plays in the Celebration Bowl, not the playoffs). After what Morgan St did to us in week 1, they owe us a win tomorrow.

Illinois State over North Dakota – Both are 6-4. UR won’t be ahead of a 7-4 UND team (they beat NDSU) however we would be ahead of 7-4 Illinois State.

Samford over UT-Martin – UT-Martin likely won’t get the OVC auto-bid after losing to Gardner-Webb, so having them pick up a 3rd loss could drop them below UR. Gardner Webb losing would avoid this issue completely.

Sacramento State over UC Davis – A Sac State win puts them firmly in at 8-3 with UC Davis out, while UC Davis winning would put both at 7-4. I think UR would be ahead of 7-4 UC Davis, but we don’t need another team w/ stronger wins in the mix.

I was 80% confident we could get an at-large earlier in the week, now I’m at about 50%. Some close resumes between Central, UIW, a potential 6th MVFC team, and the Spiders. Not trying to be the bearer of bad news but the “Bracketologists” aren’t showing much love to UR. Like I said, go Monmouth.

FCS Preview

Next Post

TBD. A win without the auto-bid and I’ll probably do a late Saturday night or early Sunday morning update on where we stand. Otherwise I’ll stick to the standard Monday morning recap.