The Phoenix come in with tons of momentum after their win at Delaware and find themselves in the thick of the CAA title race. Their 5-4 record undersells how well they’ve played as a team, yet their statistics don’t look like that of a playoff team. It’s been a pretty up-and-down season for them, so while it should be a strong test for the Spiders this is absolutely a team we can beat by 10+ points.

Elon

Remove the two COVID games against a depleted Elon roster and UR is on a sneaky five game losing streak to the Phoenix. A huge upset at Robins Stadium in 2017 started a trend of close, but losing, games against Elon, with the only wins coming against a team on their 4th string QB in two spring COVID matchups.

The great news is that despite a 5-4 record, HERO Sports has Elon inside the playoff bubble right now. Some close losses against good teams, coupled with the win at UD, mean this would be a solid win for UR’s resume and would likely put us closer (if not into) the 2023 playoff field. We won’t end the season with any great wins but two solid ones in November would be huge, and it starts with tomorrow.

Betting

The models are clear on this one – Spiders are a 3-point favorite with the total right at 47. Projected score of 25-22 which feels a little low based on how these two teams have played recently. The spread isn’t surprising after Elon’s upset as a 14.5 underdog last weekend at Delaware, but it’s hard to pass up on the streaking Spiders only laying 3 at home.

Spiders on Offense

Elon has played a bunch of games where they do well in certain areas yet struggle in others. Their inability to play complete games has led to that 5-4 record, as they’ve lost two games by giving up huge yardage on the ground and two by giving up 300+ through the air. Statistically their pass defense is the better unit however overall it’s a fairly average defense. A few areas could give the Spiders some trouble but if we look the way we did against Campbell, moving the ball shouldn’t be an issue.

What I’m watching for

Quarterback – One of these games we won’t have to focus on the QBs however this week isn’t it. Cam Coleman’s injury status was clarified by JOC (John O’Connor, Richmond Time Dispatch) earlier in the week, stating he was available to play. He did mention that Coleman would NOT have been available if we had a game last weekend, which leads me to believe he’s available but not starting (despite what the two-deep says). Either way we’re set at QB but definitely interested to see how they plan to work Coleman in. Wickersham’s strong play a couple weeks ago gives the staff the ability to be extra cautious with Coleman, but I’d still bet on seeing him at some point.

Jasiah Williams – Very cool moment happening tomorrow, as Jasiah Williams will make his 2023 debut after suffering an injury during the spring. What seemed like a lost season for Williams will still have him end up on the field, right as the Spiders are clicking in their passing attack. As we work the ball downfield more to DeGennaro and Griffin, space underneath will continue to open up. While Garcia Jr. or Veney have each had strong games in the slot, I don’t think either have filled the void left by Williams in the short-range passing game. We’ll likely still design a few plays for Garcia Jr. but Williams should grab a bulk of the underneath targets. No idea if he’ll be on a snap count but #1 (new number) will no doubt make his impact when given the chance.

Pass Protection – Through six CAA games the Spiders have played the five worst teams in terms of sacking the quarterback. Aside from Stony Brook (#7), our other five opponents are ranked 11-15 in the CAA in total sacks. Protection was an issue early in the year however there were a lot of factors involved in that. Is this an area that has improved, or has our competition weakened? This group has made strides up front but facing a team that averages 3 sacks/game in CAA play will really give us an answer. Solid test for the Hawgs this weekend.

How do we attack Elon? – The Phoenix have allowed four games of 300+ passing yards on the season and four games of 200+ rushing yards. None of those games overlapped so they’ve only played one time this year without allowing a big number on either side of the ball (and yep, it was against A&T). Do we look at that and continue to search for big plays in the passing game, or do we lean on Smith & Wickersham and keep things on the ground? I’m guessing we lean more towards running.

Coleman not being 100% factors in, as we’ll see 8+ carries from Wickersham if he starts. Elon also allows the 2nd lowest completion percentage and the T-2 lowest YPA, while giving up the 2nd highest YPC rushing. Coming off the bye week the well-rested Spiders should be more than happy to push Elon around, especially after their tough battle against the Blue Hens last weekend. Richmond currently has run for 100 yards in three straight games (after only hitting that mark twice in the first six) and I’m expecting us to make it four in a row.

Spiders on Defense

The familiar face of running back Jalen Hampton (VT transfer) returns, however his production is on the decline. Much like Richmond, the Elon of September looks nothing like the Elon of November. They’ve made adjustments to their style of play that make this a tricky team to defend. They aren’t a high scoring team but they’ve shown consistency throughout CAA play, especially when it comes to taking care of the football.

What I’m watching for

Jalen Hampton – Elon’s star running back has been bottled up the past five games.

No room to run the entire month of October for Hampton with no real sign of things turning around. The Spiders did an ok job of containing him last season (15 carries, 93 yards) however a key 48-yard run helped Elon pick up two 1st quarter TDs. While the Phoenix are better when Hampton is getting >5 YPC, how they’ve developed their passing attack during his poor stretch makes this a difficult matchup.

Passing attack – The first five games of the season Elon didn’t throw for more than 200 yards. The past four games they’ve thrown for 275+ three times. The only time they didn’t was in a rain-soaked game at Villanova, without starting QB Matthew Downing. They’ve adapted well to not having success on the ground and had their best day passing last weekend with 352 yards and 3 TDs. Their success has come in chunks, as they’ve averaged 10.5 YPA over that three-game stretch, which would easily be 1st in the CAA. Campbell was also a chunk play team that we contained well so we should be ready for what Elon throws at us.

Turnovers – No one forces more turnovers than the Spiders in the FCS, while Elon has only given the ball up five times in six CAA games. This opportunistic Spider defense could really disrupt their style of play by grabbing another multi-turnover game. The reinvigorated Phoenix passing attack against the interception and turnover leading Spiders secondary should be a great battle.

Angelo Rankin Jr. – Per his Twitter, Rankin Jr. is out for the remainder of 2023. That leaves the Spiders with Tomlinson, Stocker, and Graves at corner (true freshman CJ Fraser has played sparingly). This group stepped up against both Rhody and Campbell and we’ll continue to lean on them throughout November.

Sacks – An important area on both sides of the ball this weekend, with Elon allowing over 3.5 sacks/game on offense. A great matchup for our top-tier defensive line, and it may force Elon to try and run it more often than they have in past weeks. Limiting Downing’s time to let routes develop downfield would be a big blow to Elon’s gameplan.

Bye week success – The past two seasons the Spiders have held opponents to under 20 points coming off our bye week (19 vs JMU in 2021, 10 vs Nova in 2022). This Elon offense looks a lot different than it did earlier in the year so the extra week of prep will definitively help. Factor in their great play throughout October, along with our ability to play well in big games, and it could be another great day for the UR defense.

Special Teams

Elon is top-20 in the FCS at over 22 yards/kickoff return. The only team we’ve faced that averaged more than that was NC A&T, and you know how that went. They’re pretty solid in other aspects of punting/kicking so our KOC will be the key area to watch tomorrow. Both full kickoffs and squib kickoffs went rather horribly down in Greensboro, so I’d imagine we’ve got a better plan for this contest.

FCS Preview

Playoff relevant games

Here are the results we want from the top FCS games this weekend:

• Army over Holy Cross
• South Dakota St over Youngstown St
• Fordham over Lafayette
• South Dakota over North Dakota
• Samford over Mercer
• Eastern Kentucky over Central Arkansas

We’ll also take any losses from the trio of Albany/Delaware/Villanova, although rather unlikely based on the opposition.

Next Post

Elon recap (Monday morning)