If you see a ranked FCS team playing the next few weeks, we’re probably rooting against them. Besides winning our own games, the Spiders will need some help from a few teams down the stretch to feel “comfortably in” the playoffs at 8-3. Here are some of the key matchups across the country this week.

What the Spiders need to do

Here’s the easy one – Win. I’ve done my best to find a 7-4 playoff scenario for UR and I just don’t think it’s out there. Multiple bad losses, and potentially zero ranked wins. There will be a few bubble teams at 7-4 with superior resumes, so it seems 8-3 will be UR’s only path.

CAA – week 10

Some critical CAA matchups this week:

• Elon @ Delaware [1 pm] – A Phoenix win would go a long way for the Spiders. Not only does it give Delaware a conference loss and bring a bunch of teams into CAA title contention, it gives the Spiders an even higher quality opponent the following week.
• W&M @ Albany [1 pm] – Go Tribe? Not a thing we’re used to around here but we need the fighting Mike Londons in this one. A W&M win strengthens our schedule when we play them in a few weeks, and gives Albany their second FCS loss. Albany is 6-3 but with two FBS losses (they get 12 games because they played Hawaii). One lone FCS loss has them ahead of a bunch of teams right now so this is another game that could have a double-positive outcome for us.
• Villanova @ UNH [1 pm] – Gimme the Wildcats. If you picked up on my awful humor, yes both teams are the Wildcats. New Hampshire is our rooting interest here, with UNH already on 4 total losses and not relevant to UR’s playoff hopes. Villanova is 6-2 with their only FCS loss to Albany, and a road win @ UNH would put their resume ahead of ours. Nova also gets Delaware to end the season so as of right now they fully control their own destiny, yet have the hardest road. This is the most important outcome of CAA games in my mind this weekend, as Nova will be the easiest for us to jump in the standings.

Around the FCS – week 10

• Furman @ Chattanooga [1 pm] – Winner gets the SoCon’s auto bid, and with Chattanooga still with Alabama on the schedule a loss puts them at 7-4 and outside of the bubble. Furman is #2 in the nation in some polls right now, so they’re in no matter what. A win for the Mocs directly shrinks the bubble by one so a Furman Paladin victory Saturday would be huge.
• Nicholls @ Incarnate Word [4 pm] – Things are weird in the Southland now that Northwestern State has cancelled their season, as Nicholls remains undefeated in conference play with only a few games to go. UIW is 7-1 and a playoff lock at this point, so them missing out on the auto-bid would shrink the bubble again. Spiders will be rooting for Incarnate Word tomorrow.

Bracketology

General consensus amongst those who do this for a living have Richmond outside the bubble, yet very much in the hunt. Some bubble teams are going to win big games, some will lose them. Plenty of these teams have to square off against each other in November so there’s bound to be some clarity soon. Here’s the overarching theme for a few key conferences:

• Three or four teams for the CAA? It will be at least three, but that might be it. There’s a chance the CAA gets four but it’s very realistic this is only a three team year. Delaware is almost guaranteed one of those spots. If UR wins out it comes down to Albany, Nova, and us. Right now we’ve got the worst of the three resumes so a little help down the stretch might be needed.
• Southern – The SoCon has Furman as a lock, with Chattanooga, Mercer, and Western Carolina lurking. Mercer and WCU could end with two FCS losses so again it would come down to strength of schedule, key wins, etc. Either of Mercer or WCU dropping a winnable game late would be a significant boost for UR.
• Patriot – Two teams from the Patriot would be killer. A perennial one bid conference could very well get two, as Lafayette is poised to win the title after an upset of Holy Cross. Holy Cross still plays Army, which would give them four losses, however two of those would be against FBS teams. Does that put them ahead of an 8-3 Richmond team?
• Missouri Valley – As many as seven teams are projected to make it. This is the conference that sees the most head to head matchups in November so we need this to drop down to at least six. Bubble teams like North Dakota, Northern Iowa, and surprisingly NDSU will be teams we’re looking to see pick up more losses. There are a few 6-2/5-3 teams from this conference that face off in two or three bubble matchups down the stretch so after this week it should start to sort itself out.

Going Forward

The most important thing is securing a top-3 place in the CAA. No guarantee we get four teams but it’s impossible we drop down to a two-bid conference. We’ll have to knock Elon and W&M out in the process, so it’s just Villanova and Albany. Delaware doesn’t have an easy November so a shot at the CAA title is very much still in play.

I don’t want to go over the nightmare scenario of 2012 again, where the Spiders tied for the CAA title but left at home due to having the “worst” resume of the bunch, but that situation could be in play for one team if everyone ends up 7-1. Not saying we’re heading towards that but the Delaware/Villanova game to end the season could once again leave a crazy situation.

FCS Preview

Next Post

A brief CAA/bubble team overview from Saturday’s action