Another new CAA member on the slate this week, with the Campbell Camels making their first trip up to Richmond. The Spiders will look to go undefeated in October (something they haven’t done since 2016) and remain in the CAA & FCS Playoff picture. The Camels feature a ton of FBS transfers and a high-powered offense so this may end up being the best CAA team we’ve faced this year.

Campbell

The Camels come in at 4-3 but could easily be 6-1. They played William & Mary to a decent game to open the season, but one score losses to Elon and NC Central have them outside the playoff picture rather than squarely in the middle of it. The Camels are known for their offense and they’ve been in some shootouts through eight weeks. 45-31 against Monmouth, 49-48 against NC Central, and despite averaging over 37 a game they give up nearly 30 on defense. The Spiders will need to score to keep up but we should be much stronger than a lot of the defenses they’ve faced so far.

Betting

Total will be our highest of the season so far, coming in around 57-59. I’ve seen this spread all over the board from the few models that do FCS, but the rough average has UR as a 4 point home favorite. Projected score would be 31-27, which aligns with the types of games Campbell has played so far.

Spiders on Offense

Campbell is 10th in scoring defense, 12th is yards allowed, and bottom 1/3 in both passing and rushing YPG. Despite no statistical areas of their defense looking strong the Camels have faced a lot of good offenses, so those stats are likely a little skewed. This isn’t a top 1/3 level defense in the CAA but I don’t think they’re as bad as they look on paper.

The QB situation has seemingly flipped the past few days, with the personnel being clarified but their roles still very unknown (Huesman’s words, not mine). The A&T game now brings about more questions but I’m hoping it was the in-game learning experience we needed to have a plan to finish the season strong.

What I’m watching for

Who’s playing QB? – Good news. I was wrong. The bad news? Last week didn’t do much to instill confidence about how this plays out. Huesman said in the Wednesday presser that both QBs would play, confirming that Coleman will not redshirt, but he didn’t seem certain on how we planned to use both. With Coleman no longer redshirting, why didn’t he play the 2nd half of A&T? That’s the part that confuses me. Was he truly benched? Did we change our minds about redshirting? I understand the notion that he’s got 6 INTs in 12 quarters of football but that felt like a game he could settle into if we truly gave him the 2nd half. I’m glad Wickersham got a lot of snaps because his role remains vital, and at this point it’s all in the past if we have it sorted out moving forward.

I can’t imagine we are burning Cam’s redshirt for him to split drives with Wickersham. If you’re playing him past four games, then he’s QB1 until he shows he’s not – no bringing him in on 3rd down for longer passes and then only letting Wickersham do short stuff. That hurts everyone. Let Coleman be the guy and Wickersham a strong 3rd down/red zone compliment. Based on the games we’ve had the past few weeks that should still mean 15+ snaps for Wickersham, so it’s no small role. Whatever plan we have, if it’s clearly defined and followed then things should go well. I’m optimistic the staff will have this operation looking smoother this weekend.

Campbell’s run defense might not be that bad – They’re 13th in the CAA in yards allowed rushing at over 180 YPG, however they’ve played some of the best run offenses so far.

• W&M – 1st
• Hampton – 3rd
• Monmouth – 4th

Facing three of the top four CAA rushing offenses is bound to inflate their numbers. When they played Maine (15th in rushing) they held them to under 1 YPC so while I’m not saying they’re a top-3 run defense, I don’t think they’re bottom-3. Easy to look at the numbers and think we should run it a bunch against them but I’m guessing the Spiders won’t back away from putting it up 35+ times.

2nd half scoring – The past three games our 2nd half offense hasn’t been there. The past two weeks weren’t high scoring games in general, but with all three games still an open contest in the 2nd half our scoring has fallen off after halftime.

• Maine – 7 points
• Rhody – 7 points
• NC A&T – 3 points

None of these are overly concerning as each game did have different circumstances, however we’ve seen teams the past few years take the air out of the ball too early. Barring a four TD lead at halftime tomorrow we’ll need four strong quarters on offense to beat Campbell, so I’m hoping there’s an emphasis on adjustments to what we do in the 2nd half to balance protecting the ball while still being assertive.

Attacking the middle – I won’t repost all the passing charts but you’ve probably picked up on the fact that we still aren’t throwing it over the middle enough. 20% against URI, less than that against A&T, and our best offensive games of the year have been where we’ve approached 30% in middle-of-the-field target percentage. Need more of that tomorrow.

Protection – Campbell has four sacks the ENTIRE season. Not a team that gets to the QB and the perfect recipe for us to stretch the field. We’ve seen the O-line come together more the past few weeks and this is really an area we can burn them in. Assuming Coleman is the guy we should have the time to produce a heavy chunk-play game like we did against Maine.

Spiders on Defense

The offenses on both sides have gotten all the press leading into what should be another shoot-out, however if the Spiders come away with a W this weekend it will be because of the UR defense. Lots of things they do are where we have struggled, yet we’ve played our best in the toughest tests. Sure, we can win a game 38-35, but in my opinion a game in the 20s is where we’d like to end up.

Campbell has the #3 scoring offense, the #3 passing offense, ranks 1st in completion percentage (75%!), and is 1st in YPA. They’ve thrown for the 3rd most yards despite attempting the 10th fewest passes, as they’re a big play offense that relies on scoring quickly and taking their shots downfield.

What I’m watching for

Tempo – This game mirrors Hampton in a few ways, which probably isn’t what you wanted to hear. The Camels go plenty fast – no huddle nearly 100% of the time which results in them being 14th in the CAA in time of possession. We’re a defense that plays a lot of guys, so we’ll be tested in our substitute patterns and efficiency in getting the play-call relayed. Hampton got us a few times in these areas back in September so no doubt this has been a focal point during practice this week.

Mobile QB – Hajj-Malik Williams isn’t a running quarterback but he’s very opportunistic. They move the pocket for Williams a lot, who is excellent at extending plays and picking up yards on the ground when needed. We’ll see some read option but the focus of this will be contain and maintaining rush lanes. This is another area where Hampton burned us, as their mobile QB got outside plenty of times for solid yardage and to keep drives alive. Will be interesting to see Justin Wood’s approach to combat both of these areas.

Secondary – Another game for the Spiders where a lot is riding on this group. Tomlinson and Stocker held the corner spots well at Rhody and they’ll need to be every bit as good tomorrow. Campbell protects the QB pretty well, and due to their above average running game they’re afforded opportunities to look for home run balls. The Spiders gave up a lot of yards in Rhode Island however they threw it a ton and we limited the big plays. We’ve seen some great games from the safeties this season and some less-than-great games. Need an effort similar to that of the Rhody game tomorrow.

Win the early downs – So much of what Campbell does is about being on schedule. You don’t have a >50% 3rd down conversion rate, the most 1st downs/game in the CAA, and the 2nd shortest average yards-to-gain on 3rd down without being excellent on 1st & 2nd down. It’s easy for tempo teams with mobile QBs to continually get 4-5 yards on 1st down so I think a lot of any potential success we’ll have will start there. We’ve haven’t backed away from blitzing teams earlier in drives this season, so that may be the route we go. The other side of that says you might not want to blitz a quick striking team too early, so I’ll be watching how the game plan evolves throughout the day.

Red zone – Arguably a section you could mention each week but the numbers for Campbell are through the roof. The Camels are 14th in the nation in red zone scoring percentage (91.4%) and 4th in the nation in red zone TD percentage (85.7%). Some gaudy numbers across the board and it’s easy to see why they score nearly 40 a game. Unlikely to force too many stops in the redzone but a few key plays would go a long way for a UR defense that will be tested continually.

Special Teams

Campbell has 20 touchbacks on the season (most in the CAA) so we likely won’t see much from our KOR unit. They have the second lowest KOR average themselves, so after a not so great day against A&T I’m hoping things will be a lot easier for our KOC unit.

They’re only 3-6 on FGs this season, along with three missed PATs, so we’ve got the kicking advantage if it gets to that point. Both teams enter with two blocked kicks/punts on the season, while Campbell is middle of the pack in most other areas. Never smart to downplay the role of special teams in a game but this doesn’t feel like a game that will be decided by this phase.

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Campbell recap (Monday morning)