We’ve reached the midway point of the season, with Maine coming to town in a battle of two very disappointing teams exiting September.

Maine

The Black Bears enter at just 1-4, however they’ve face an incredibly difficult schedule so far. Their losses have come against FIU (FBS), North Dakota State, Rhode Island, and W&M. That’s one FBS opponent and three FCS teams that have been (or are still currently) ranked. 0-4 in that stretch that saw Maine nearly beat FIU but not come close in the others. They are coming off a 56-28 thrashing of Stony Brook, showing that this non-playoff team still has some explosiveness.

Betting

There’s sadly been good money in betting against our Spiders as both CAA games with spreads that felt too big were in fact just that. I’d love to say my feelings have changed but seeing that UR is landing around -8 on the spread it’s hard to not see value in Maine. Another total that should fall around 48, meaning at 28-20 UR victory is projected. That’s a lot of points for this offense to score as the QB situation continues to linger.

Spiders on Offense

There’s a lot of bad when it comes to both the UR offense and the Maine defense. The Spiders are 12th (out of 15) in the CAA in scoring, while Maine is 11th in scoring defense. I do think their quality of opponents skews these some but the fact they gave up 28 to Stony Brook last week shows this group isn’t great. It should be a good opponent to help our struggling running game, as this Maine defense has regressed in 2023 to allowing nearly 190 YPG on the ground.

What I’m watching for

Have a plan at quarterback – Each time I re-watch the Hampton game it gets crazier that Coleman didn’t trot out there from the jump. It felt so much like the Morgan State game, where we were hoping a strong defensive showing could allow us to played scared on offense and still steal a win. It’s easy to recall games the past few seasons where playing with that mindset didn’t work and I don’t think I can find an example of where it actually worked out.

Obviously if Wickersham can go he’s the guy. 76% completion rate, only one turnover, and offers the most in the running game. If he can’t this turns to Hardy – I said during the spring that I thought Coleman would beat Hardy out but I’d go Hardy before him if he’s available. Yes he threw three INTs at Stony Brook before getting hurt but this is still a tough spot to not turn to your more experienced player. If you’ve got a 4th year guy who ran the offense well, and looked good running himself, I’d imagine that’s the play.

No matter how it shakes out you have to pick a guy and go with him. If Hardy trots out there for two drives, doesn’t score, and then we see Coleman then it’s obvious we’ve learned nothing. At this point it feels like the option they go with doesn’t matter, it’s how they manage the choices they have. Find a guy, let him settle into the game, and most importantly let him go play quarterback. In an effort to limit mistakes with inexperienced QBs we’ve only further limited our offense. The 2nd half of Hampton you could feel the urgency and we let Coleman sling it around the field (and quite well). Go let any of these three QBs win you the game and we’ll be much better off than when we play to avoid losing.

O-line growth – Between online posts, what I saw on the sidelines, and him not being listed on the two-deep it’s pretty clear that Salyers is out. If Lamp remains out then we’ve got two younger guys continuing to fill those roles however at this point we should start to see this group mesh. Unfair to set the bar as high as it was early in the season (especially since we didn’t come close to that early on) yet there’s still two established senior starters so it’s a fairly good blend. Going R-Fr., R-So., R-Sr., R-Sr., R-Fr. isn’t too bad of a mix especially with Hummel working in there as well.

Not trying to be dramatic but this game feels like do-or-die for the O-line. We’re 14th in the CAA in rushing yardage and dead last in sacks allowed and while that’s gotten slightly better the improvement statistically has been minimal. Maine is bottom 1/3 in the CAA in run defense, yards per carry allowed, sacks, and overall pressure. The concern level would max out for me if we don’t see the best game of the season from this group given our opponent. It doesn’t need to be perfect, but they’ve got to make strides against a team like Maine. Stringing a few steady games together would be big for the stretch we have incoming, so we absolutely need to see that start tomorrow.

3rd down offense – What happens when a moveable object (Maine D) faces off against a stoppable force (Spider O)?

That’s the match-up we have on 3rd downs this Saturday, with the Black Bears giving up nearly 50% of all opponent 3rd down attempts (last in the CAA) while the Spiders barely convert 20% on offense (also last). I think we all know 3rd downs haven’t been our friend but it caught me by surprise just how staggering the difference between #1 and #15 is. A good chunk of that is attributed to not having many 3rd & shorts, so I’m hoping the poor Maine defense will allow us to be better on 1st & 2nd down and give whatever QB we have a chance come 3rd down.

Spiders on Defense

For all the struggles the Spiders are having on the offensive side of the ball, Maine is having more. They’re under 100 YPG rushing (dead last in the CAA), and bottom 1/3 in just about everything else. Their strength of schedule continues to play a big factor in that, with the Black Bears having faced the CAA’s #1 and #4 defenses, along with a top-3 defense in the MVFC. Unlike the Spiders they haven’t been battling injuries on the O-line or playing their 3rd/4th string QB, so we likely have seen the true Maine offense to date. They thankfully don’t run the QB, but they aren’t shy in working the ball downfield. I’d imagine they were quite happy with what they saw from our coverage last week so expect them to take their fair share of shots downfield.

What I’m watching for

Can we shake off one bad game? – All was fine the first four games. Michigan State torched us in the 2nd half (it’s easy to let the FBS games get away from you), and it was sloppy against Delaware State (easy to lose focus against one of the worst FCS teams), but we did what they were supposed to do four games in. We were forcing turnovers, maintaining a low PPG, all while playing a few more guys than expected.

Hampton effectively ruined all the good work of September to enter October on a sour note, racking up big yardage both on the ground and in the air. We made one of the most one-dimensional offenses look extremely well balanced, so the focus now turns to how we adapt to that. The Spiders have followed up some of their worst defensive performances with great ones the past few seasons (4th quarter choke @ Nova in ’21, great game @ VT the next week – bad 2nd half to UNH in ’22, amazing effort in win @ Delaware the next week). I know Stony Brook isn’t good but Maine did just put 56 on them a week ago. We’ll need another bounce back effort from Justin Wood’s squad this week.

Cornerback – Angelo Rankin Jr. is not listed on the two-deep, so we’ll likely see Chance Graves make his first start. This is likely the group that hasn’t improved the way we were all hoping so removing a starter likely won’t help things. Maine’s inability to run the ball + UR’s vulnerability in the secondary = a lot of passing for the Black Bears. Could see more of the 4-2-5 from the Spiders due to that, but no matter what package we’re in the play of our corners will likely dedicate how Maine tries to attack us throughout the game.

Where is the pressure? – Despite being 12th in the nation with 7.2 TFLs per game, the Spiders are outside the top-40 when it comes to sacks. Zander Barnett has 2.5 sacks on year. Besides him? – no one else has more than one. Pretty shocking for a group that was seemingly in the backfield every other drop-back last season. The TFLs do show that overall we’ve been strong upfront but the importance of big negative plays on defense only increases with bad offense. Against a relatively average Maine O-line I’ll be looking to see what we do schematically to increase pressure. We’re probably a little wary to bring too much heat based on how we covered in 1-on-1 situations a week ago so a lot of this likely falls on the front-4. With Louis & Grant slated to start we’ll need the trio (including Barnett) to play even better in October.

Special Teams

I’m excited (?) for what we do on special teams – what started as a “look away” phase of the game has now become fairly intriguing. Kickoff returns have been better, kickoff coverage has been great, and punting remains solid. Is the fact that I’m now excited for special teams a sign that it comes crashing down soon? Maybe – although Maine makes me think we’ll see a continuation of the prior weeks.

They’re 105th in average kickoff return yardage while only kicking four total touchbacks, meaning most kickoffs will be returned and most have a chance to give us great field position. They’re also bottom 1/2 in average punt return yardage so with Savon hopefully back in his old form it could be a high return yardage day for the Spiders. When you’re 2-3 you tend to find enjoyment in even the smallest things, so for now this remains a group that’s trending in the right direction and is worth mentioning each week.

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Maine recap (Monday morning)