Richmond follows up playing the 14th placed team in the CAA preseason poll by facing off against the 15th (and last) placed team this week. The Hampton Pirates visit Richmond for the first time as CAA members to face off against a Richmond team with 6+ starters potentially out.

Hampton

Hampton enters at 2-1, having won the all-important Battle for the Real HU against Howard two weeks ago and coming off an early bye last weekend. It’s a run heavy offensive team which is a complete reversal of what we saw in 2022. What hasn’t changed is their defense, as the Pirates are giving up even more points than they did last season. Seems like we may have timed our QB injuries well but this Pirate rushing attack could prove troublesome against a banged up UR D-line.

Betting

All sites seem pretty set on Richmond being a slightly greater than three TD favorite. Seeing right around -22 for the spread, with a total around 48. Predicted score is 35-13 but so much of this depends on who we have playing. I thought Stony Brook getting nearly two TDs was too much (it was) but I’ve got no thoughts on this until we get injury updates on a lot of guys.

Spiders on Offense

Probably should’ve posed this as a question because it really comes down to which Spiders we have available on offense. O-line will be interesting but all eyes will be on the QB spot. This games looks different whether it’s Wickersham or Hardy or Snelsire (or Coleman?) so it’s worth discussing each scenario.

I’m not going to say there’s a good game to potentially have your 3rd string QB starting, but if you’ve got to pick one it’s likely this one. The Pirates allow 32 PPG, over 250 yards in the air, and nearly 65% completion percentage. Their run defense has been solid however, allowing 115 YPG and only 3.2 YPC. It’s not a defense that creates a ton of negative plays (only 11 TFLs and two sacks through three game) so ideally this new O-line grouping should have a nice game to develop some chemistry.

What I’m watching for

Offensive line rotations – This will likely be a point each week until we see an established rotation for a few weeks. Gavin Lamp is listed as the starting LT on the game notes, but who knows. Seems like we’ll see both Trey Gray and Gabe Carbajal play there if Lamp can’t go, as his backup feels undecided. Cade Salyers is also likely out with Gouveia continuing to play LG. This should be another “heavy right” game in terms of running, with Coll and Mitchell continuing to anchor the right side. Despite not being a great team, this Hampton squad should offer a good test for a team that hasn’t really put a great running game together. Week 5 would be a great time for this team to get the running game clicking, especially with a potential huge question mark at QB.

Quarterback – Never thought I’d see us go with multiple “ORs” on the QB depth chart, but here we are:

• Wickersham – No word as of yet, so I’d lean towards him being out. If he is able to go that wipes out any concerns and means we’ll be able to attack this weak secondary. I’d imagine we’d try and not run him too often so if we do see #16 out there it should be our best passing game of the year.
• Hardy – The concussion makes me think this is a no-go. Despite the three INTs he showed good flashes from midway through the 1st quarter until halftime. Nice job working the ball downfield and ran extremely well. Forced a few passes that he’d like back but I can’t fault him for being aggressive once he finally got his chance. If he is the option tomorrow we’ll be just fine if he’s more cautious with the ball.
• Snelsire – I won’t say there isn’t a drop-off between our 1st and 3rd string QBs, however if you look across the CAA I’d imagine ours is less than everyone else. He seemed well prepared and not caught up in the moment for a QB that got zero 1st team reps all week. He won’t offer the same running ability as the first two, but with a week of practice under his belt Ashten will be a reliable option for this staff if needed.
• Coleman – Ain’t happening. I’m high on Coleman but the fact we didn’t see him at Stony Brook was telling. Still a true freshman and hard to put him out there in a CAA game for his first collegiate action. He’s the backup behind Snelsire by default until further notice.

Winning key situations – The Pirates are really bad in 3rd downs and red zone:

• 53% of 3rd downs are converted against Hampton defense, so no matter who plays QB we should be able to sustain drives and maintain the football. Right now we’re only converting 23% so this area needs a big boost.
• 12 of 13 possessions in the red zone have resulted in scores for Hampton opponents so far. The Spiders have been good here so far, scoring on 8/10 possessions, yet half of those scores are field goals. We were atrocious in goal-to-go situations a week ago so at a minimum that needs to improve.

Spiders on Defense

A three-headed rushing attack for the Pirates comes in averaging over 250 YPG on the ground. Running backs Elijah Burris (113 YPG) and Darran Butts (75 YPG) lead the way, while QB Chris Zellous adds 67. The passing attack is lacking, as Zellous only completes 55% of his passes while throwing for only 159 YPG. Toss in a 5:4 TD/INT ratio and it’s clear this team wants to win by running the football.

What I’m watching for

Strong rushing attack, or bad opposition? – Can’t look at what Hampton has done on offense without looking at their strength of schedule. Grambling, Norfolk State, and Howard all rank between 90-110 of FCS teams (128 total) per Massey Rankings. They only have a couple of D-I wins between the three of them so there’s a strong chance Hampton is about to get a CAA reality check. The dual threat QB is always a concern but we’ve had good success handling those types of offenses. Things do get trickier when you face a lot of read option/QB runs, especially when you may be without two of your top-3 defensive ends.

Defensive line depth – Jeremiah Grant has been out for two weeks and Zander Barnett couldn’t finish the Stony Brook game – both with shoulder injuries. If either can’t go this Saturday it will be interesting to see where Coach Huesman turns. Camden Byrd will for sure be in the rotation but the spot after his feels entirely up in the air. Hoilette has helped fill this void some by playing the edge on 3rd downs, however with Hampton being a run-based team that might not make much sense. Thaos Figaro and Zion Bryson are the other two DEs that make the most sense. Both have only appeared in the Delaware State game, which makes sense given the proven rotation in front of them. If both #44 and #90 can’t go we’ll likely be seeing a lot of one (or both) of these two, so definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Red zone defense – Again we have to keep their opponents in mind, but Hampton has scored on all eight red zone trips this season – with seven being touchdowns. The Spiders are under the 50% mark on defensive touchdowns allowed after a great performance on Long Island, so we’ll see if they can keep that going two weeks in a row. If we do end up having QB issues and a less than stellar offense, holding any promising Hampton drives to 3 points we be crucial.

Special Teams

Not much excitement on the Hampton special teams. Very average numbers in the kick return game, not a great punting average, and they’ve only kicked one field goal all season. Last week was a big step forward for this UR group, and although you can’t get too excited about success against an inferior opponent, maintaining a high level of play two weeks in a row would show that last week might’ve been a sign of things to come.

One interesting part of this week’s special teams will be true freshmen participation. We’ve got a few guys who have hit their four game limit, so the redshirt decision will have to be made now. Not a huge factor in the game but curious to see who fills those roles.

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Hampton recap (Monday morning)