No more talking about our own team, we’ve finally got an opponent to discuss. Richmond starts the 2023 season with Morgan St. and it’s a pretty perfect year to have the Bears as your first opponent. The new offense and new QB will likely appreciate an easy contest to help ease ourselves into the year.

Morgan State

I don’t think you need me to tell you that Morgan St. isn’t a playoff contender in 2023. The Bears come off a 4-7 campaign in 2022 that saw them give up 28 PPG on defense, while only scoring 23 a game on offense. They did face three CAA opponents in 2022, losing to Towson (by 8), Stony Brook (by 2), and Delaware (by 31), which helps to put this game into perspective. They were one of the more penalized teams in the MEAC at over 80 yards per game, however they had well above-average special teams play that makes this matchup a little more intriguing.

The Bears were 0-3 in all three game decided by seven points or less, with two of those losses coming against CAA teams, so while this isn’t a great team they likely aren’t at the bottom of the MEAC. They return a few key standouts and could test the Spiders in one or two areas, however this game sets up to be a nice opener for UR and good film to learn from heading into Michigan State.

Betting

Official lines won’t be released until late Friday/early Saturday, but a few sites give a good idea of where those lines will land. Seeing the total right around 46 or 47, with the spread around four TDs (anywhere from -25 to -30). Neither surprise me, as this UR defense should be able to handle the Bears, with the Spiders needing to score a majority (if not all) of the points to hit the over.

Spiders on Offense

If you’re looking to see this new UR offense that prioritizes the run I think you’ll be pleased with how Week 1 ends up. Morgan St. allowed 147 YPG on the ground last season, however against teams at a similar level to Richmond those numbers jumped significantly.

Not great if you’re a Bears fan, but absolutely ideal for these Spiders. I’m expecting a heavy dose of the ground game early and often from this new October/Ross offense, as this is a game a strong CAA running team should surpass the 200-yard mark in most of the time.

In the games I saw online it wasn’t anything too out of the ordinary from the Bears on defense, as their pass defense was slightly better than their run defense numbers in 2022 (but still not great). No reason to think we won’t get a chance for some big plays early on however I’m really expecting us to lean on them early and make this a typical CAA vs MEAC game. Everyone wants to see the new QB in Week 1 but I’m hoping it’s the senior backs that take the spotlight over the Labor Day weekend.

One area that Morgan St. did excel at is tackles-for-loss, as they were 5th in the nation across all FCS teams with 8.1 TFLs per game in 2022. Leading the charge was #0 Elijah Williams, who recorded 19 TFLs and 9 sacks in their 11 games (for comparison Marlem Louis had 14 TFLs and 8.5 sacks in ’22). Now, you can’t look at these numbers and not factor in the level of competition. Looking at the teams with the most TFLs in 2022 it’s clear that it isn’t a great indicator for success, or overall D-line play (six of the top-10 teams had losing records) but you can’t ignore a team that’s got an ability to create negative plays. Williams typically lines up on the left side of the defensive line, so I’m looking forward to seeing that match-up against Ryan Coll in his first start at RT.

Spiders on Defense

If this UR defense wants to end up at or below the 20 PPG mark in 2023 you’ve got to have strong showings in the non-conference slate. The Bears only scored 23 PPG last season and lost star RB Alfonzo Graham to the NFL (104 YPG on the ground and nearly 120 All-purpose YPG in ’22). While Baltimore native Jabriel Johnson looks to be a solid replacement for Graham the huge question mark for this Bear’s offense lies at QB. As a team Morgan St. only threw for 123 yards per game last season, with a sub-1 TD/INT ratio. Couple that with a 43% completion percentage and this offense was literally the worst non-triple option passing team in America.

Out of 123 FCS teams the only teams with fewer passing yards per game were triple-option offenses The Citadel and Davidson (yes, THAT Davidson). Most of this is due to Carson Baker’s injury in the middle of the season, however he still only managed to complete 52% of his passes and was averaging around the 125 YPG mark. They’re better when Baker is under center but this should no means feel like a test for our secondary.

While the Spiders should be able to dictate things on offense this a really a game that should become quickly boring with good defense. Morgan St. will try and get their running backs involved in the passing game to help out their QBs, something they were actually pretty decent at in ’22, but they won’t win this game sideline-to-sideline against this UR defense. It should be a very comfortable game for this secondary to get itself settled in, and while that’s ok for Week 1 we likely won’t learn much about any outstanding position battles from what Morgan St. has to offer.

What I’m watching for

Offense

• 200+ rushing yards – Feels like an easy target but we really should see our O-line set the tone for the season right from the jump. Assuming we run it 40+ times this really shouldn’t be too much of an issue. I do hope that not too many of these attempts come from Wickersham, as this isn’t the game we need to be running our QB too often. I know everyone wants to see what he’s got but I wouldn’t hate for his first big running game to wait until CAA play rolls around. Let Savon get his, then let the depth of the RB room shine in the 2nd half.
• Kyle Wickersham – New QB, first career start, and the #1 variable in terms of how successful this season will be – how can you not be excited? I don’t expect us to show too much of the playbook in this type of game but a few big throws would be great to see opening weekend. Ideally we wouldn’t see him run too much, as this isn’t the game we need him taking an excessive number of hits. Most importantly, I’d love a zero turnover game. He undoubtedly brings big plays in the passing game and wrinkles in the running game, but so much of 2023 will ride on his ability to protect the football. Huesman mentioned making smarts decisions and taking care of the football in just about every fall camp interview, so while we’re due to see some mistakes this is a great chance to start off 2023 with a clean outing.

Defense

• Play everyone – And I mean everyone. We’ll see the six man rotation up front but we should get a few of those guys out in the 2nd half. Can’t imagine we need to see Tristan Wheeler, Aaron Banks, & Co. in the 3rd/4th quarter so this really should be a game where we play a ton of guys on defense. There are enough new faces on offense that the staff may want to play them a little longer, however the defense could really see us dig deep into the bench. Should see plenty of youth on the field late into Saturday night.

Special Teams

• I won’t list Special Teams each week, but the Bears are an interesting match-up. Keith Jenkins returned two kickoffs for TDs last year for the Bears, and they also blocked two kicks as a team. I won’t put too much stock in any of our three non-conference games this year but a strong KOC performance would be nice against an above average return team. Morgan St. did also allow three blocked kicks, so it’s a somewhat volatile punt unit that could either keep them in this game for a few more drives or end things quickly. Will be a great opportunity for our punt unit to remain solid and for our kickoff units to shift things in a positive direction to begin 2023.

FCS Preview

So much of this blog is about bring Spiders fan together, so I’ll rope another UR grad in here for an FCS Preview. This is only in PDF format and looks more at the FCS week ahead, rather than just UR, so if you’re interested in some thoughts about other FCS/CAA games give this a quick read.

Next Post

Morgan State recap – Thinking I’ll stick to a pattern of posting these Monday morning, as Sundays make for a quick turnaround during road game weeks.